Very well put. The same management philosophy happened to Boeing, and I think more quietly to many companies thought too big to fail in the last 50 years.
IBM is one of many, and their decline wouldn't really matter all that much in the grand scheme of things.
The changes could even be by the same people, I'm sure many from RH will not like IBM culture.
That said, Red Hat is doing well and I don't see them dying.
Disclaimer: I work for RH but opinions are my own