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Comment by BelleOfTheBall | Hacker News Reader

Many of the countries in the East of Europe seem to be in the process of turning against the EU, from Hungary to some mild anti-EU sentiments in Poland, etc. Although I did read some Polish people suggesting that EU's financial benefits to the country guarantee they'll remain.

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There is 0% chance E. Europe countries would leave the EU, it's huff and puff. It would knock them back 20 years.

Serbia is historically aligned with Soviet/Russia ie on the 'Greek Orthodox' side of the Iron Curtain and so that's why it's going to take them that much longer to join the EU, if ever.

Edit: FYI [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Serbia_relation...

I saw a poll that Polish people trusted EU officials more than Polish officials in terms of corruption. Those countries also receive huge amounts of development aid and the threats of leaving the EU have all been coming from the richer original member states. Are there any Polls here who can confirm or correct that impression?

Poles want to change the structure of the EU and/or realign its priorities, but most don’t want to leave it entirely.

Poles are the most positive of EU of any EU country [1], even if at the same time they might be quite opposed to certain things (certainly the 'narrow majority' right wing groups are obviously very opposed). That does not translate into Euroskepticism.

But Poland would be done without the EU - imagine if 'New Mexico' were cut off form the US, it would be devastating. It's not just the transfer payments, it's the trade, quality standards, participation in so many groups, financial networks, zillions of Poles able to work abroad and remit payments, the Poles do not have a sophisticated diplomatic corps so they'd be starting from 'nothing' in trying to make international trade deals and nobody would care.

From a geo-strategic perspective, Putin & Co. may very well press hard to meddle in their affairs, trying to pull them into the Eurasian Economic Union aka the Neo Russian Empire.

So in almost every way, Poland wins tremendously from EU participation and that's probably unanimous from every perspective. Arguments between Duda and EU is huff and puff, partly it's just populism, partly it's negotiation, partly it's Duda trying to draw the line at where he believes power is etc. etc. but it's not existential - there is zero chance Poland is leaving the EU.

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/03/19/europeans-cred...

Leaving the EU was a bad move for the UK too - don't underestimate the power of blind nationalism and misinformation.

I would argue Serbia is traditionally aligned with Russia/Soviets. That's the narrative for the last 25 years maybe, and I think it was just the path of least resistance. Boomers in Serbia were more westernized than you would expect. Some poor judgement of some Western powers tipped the balance and forced Serbia into Russian influence, IMHO.

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