Pandemic fatigue may be setting in across much of the world | Hacker News Reader

Pandemic fatigue may be setting in across much of the world

economist.com

37 points1915cb1f16 comments

I think it's possible that people are experiencing "boy who cried wolf" syndrome. I don't want to downplay the severity of people's experiences with the virus, but I think it's important to acknowledge how the severity/effects of the virus were drastically overstated in March/April, to help understand the effects that it's having with compliance now.

I liken it to the Dare effect. https://priceonomics.com/dare-the-anti-drug-program-that-nev... Where the risks of Marijuana are exaggerated to kids, and when the kids find out that the DARE program misled (cried wolf to) them, they tend disregard EVERYTHING they heard from DARE and underestimate risks associated with drugs in the future.

I don’t think we accurately understand the long-term risks yet

- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2020.09.052

- https://www.tctmd.com/news/signs-cardiac-damage-even-younger...

- https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...

How the severity/effects of the virus were drastically overstated in March/April,

Of course this just isn't true. True, some aspects (such as risk of surface transmission) were overestimated; but other aspects (airborn transmission risk) were also underestimated at the time.

At the same time, countermeasures have definitely improved. And in some areas, the virus has partially attained is saturation limit (and so its spread has slowed somewhat).

But roughly stated, the overall assessment of risk/severity back in early Spring remains spot-on (perhaps even understated - given what we know know about the phenomenon of "long-haulers").

In what way was the severity overstated? People are getting sick for weeks/months at a time and a good amount of people are dying.

The lockdowns where only meant to stop hospitals from being overrun, not as a long term solution.

We didn't see hospitals getting overrun in many places. So a lot of people have this sense that the lockdowns were unnecessary. But we did see hospitals getting overrun in places like new york, with fairly disastrous consequences. This could have been much worse.

When a boy cries "wolf," one must consider that the wolf understands that the villagers will come, and therefore skedaddles. On the third night, the wolf knows the game, but the overconfident villagers get their sheep et.

The hospitals were overrun in New York, or we feared they might be? Afaiu the hospital ship as well as the temporary hospitals were never used.

Yes, I feel like a “bait and switch” has been pulled on us.

I've been struggling with this, even though I've been following all the guidelines.

I'm ~30 years old, which puts me at a ~.2% (?) chance of dying if I get it. On the other hand, I've spent 1% of my remaining life under lockdown so far, and expect to spend an approximately equal amount before a vaccine. At what point is it not worth it?

I've thought a little about this in terms Quality-Adjusted-Life-Years, let's say "Covid lockdown" gives a discount factor of half (maybe should be less, but been feeling kind of shitty recently). In these terms, I've already spent 2.5X more QALY from lockdown than the Micromorts I'd get from Covid and expect to spend another 2.5X more before this is all over.

Other factors are A) I’m in a pod with older family members, so I'd have to exit the pod. B) If I got sloppier, I’d increase the chance that somebody else got it, which feels like a dick move. C) The long term health effects are not known, and even if I live it could fuck me up for life (this could be worked into the QALY).

How are other people dealing with this?

> I've spent 1% of my remaining life under lockdown so far, and expect to spend an approximately equal amount before a vaccine. At what point is it not worth it?

If you understand that vaccine won't solve anything, i.e. it'll be less effective and more dangerous than the crappiest mask. Then it's pretty easy to just accept that you have to wear a mask around people for a long time, the rest of your life if you prefer, and live a normal life. We had lockdown only for two months in april and may, after that it's back to normal, but in masks.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it."

Cuomo just extended NY lockdowns to, wait for it..., Nov 3rd. Couldn't be more blatant if he tried. That tells you all you need to know about C19 in the United States.

I hate that "wait for it..." idiom.

How does that tell us why the death rate per capita in the US is 2.5x that of Canada?

Perhaps Canada didn't send COVID patients into nursing homes, like Cuomo et al did? Perhaps they attribute their deaths differently? Perhaps it's not yet over for them? Who knows? People keep forgetting that we are, at best, in the middle of this thing, not at the end.

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