If members record a prediction on Beansight and that it happens, they will be rewarded. If they record predictions that will not happen, they will lose credibility points.
The algorithm to check whether the prediction occurred is based on each single vote. It weights more people with a great expertise score and weights more votes close to the deadline or votes that passed the deadline.
If the prediction comes to an end before the deadline, then the algorithm will wait to reach the deadline to validate it. But we will soon let the community close a prediction if they decide it's over.
Guillaume