Ask HN: Why has the Covid curve flattened in Europe but not in USA? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Why has the Covid curve flattened in Europe but not in USA?

8 pointsquietthrow13 comments

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But the curve has not flattened in Europe!

At least if you consider France to be part of Europe: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Or Italy: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Or Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Really, what are you talking about? What countries do you include when you say Europe?

I am honestly confused, because I also looked up the UK, Russia, etc. None have flattened their curves.

Flattening the curve is different from a 2nd wave. Flattening the curve means bringing down R0 from it's initial 3.5 down to 1. Which did happen. They all flattened the curve.

Worldometer doesn't even give you the relevant numbers

The US got a late start dealing with the virus because of a failure of leadership at the very top. The president downplayed the virus and failed to lead an effective response to the virus early on. That delay in widespread testing, preventative measures like promoting masks, social distancing, minimizing gatherings, and the like should have started in January or February. Instead he left it to individual states, and the lack of a unified effort likely thwarted our progress fighting the virus.

Even 7 months into the pandemic we still don't have widespread testing or contact tracing, and there is still no coherent national strategy, and instead it is left to states which have different approaches.

In talking with my wife about it (she was not born in the US), she said that Americans really emphasize individual freedom more than in other countries, which is evident in people protesting against masks. In other countries, there is a sense of "we're in this together" and there is more cooperation with national or international efforts that help the greater good. In her home country of the Philippines, quarantine measures involved restricting travel between towns (similar to what was implemented in Italy). I am certain that would result in widespread riots in the US.

> Philippines

They are an interesting case.

Masks have been mandatory since April 3. [1]

They have quarantine measures (as you mentioned).

Then on August 5 they made face mask AND face shield mandatory on public transportation. [2]

It then expanded the face mask + shield mandate on Sept 8th [3]

Was their mask mandate effective?

Is any mask mandate effective?

[1] - https://www.osac.gov/Country/Philippines/Content/Detail/Repo...

[2] - https://www.onenews.ph/dotr-face-shield-mask-now-required-fo...

[3] - https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1332539/govt-expands-mandatory...

I was in the Philippines January-February 2020 when COVID-19 first appeared. People were clamoring for masks long before it was mandated. Their desire to wear masks voluntarily was likely more effective than any mandate. Their cases per 100k are maybe 1/8 what they are in the US

1. https://time.com/5887432/coronavirus-united-states-failure/

Yes. Up to a point. You will always have some level of non-compliance. It is more of a mitigating tool than anything else.

Compared to Philippines: USA has 3x the people and 20x the GDP per capita. USA has 40x the death and 20x the number of confirmed cases.

Americans comply with all sorts of bullshit, but you need consistent leadership and messaging. New York granted the governor sweeping emergency powers that have been wielded to keep things under control after the initial outbreaks/shitshow.

Contact tracing isn’t perfect, but so far back to school hasn’t been a disaster. Plenty of criticism has been rightly and wrongly flung at NY government, but the results speak.

Contact tracing isn’t perfect

True, but it must be better than nothing at all, right?

> I am certain that would result in widespread riots in the US.

Thank god. Americans have anti-authoritarianism in their blood.

It's reassuring to know that there's a significant portion of the population that will disobey any order just because it's an order.

It's reassuring to know that there's a significant portion of the population that will disobey any order just because it's an order.

Why is that reassuring? Every year we have cases of people refusing evacuation orders during fires or hurricanes and dying as a result. It would be fine if they are the only ones who died, but sometimes first responders die trying to save them.

I'd rather live in a society where at least some segment of the population instinctively resists authority.

As opposed to being surrounded by people that fully obey any and every order they're given.

It is unfortunate that store workers have been murdered (like at grocery stores etc) over asking people to put on a mask or use curbside pickup.

I have read that people who wear masks are still getting small amounts of virus particles when they are out in public, and as a result they are developing at least a weak response. This results in less severe illness when/if the person receives enough of the virus for it to become infectious.

I don't remember where I read this, or I'd post a link. Either way, it is an interesting theory which has not (yet) been proven.

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