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Comment by JaakkoP | Hacker News Reader

Author of the model here. First time on the front page with my content - thanks for sharing!

This is the same model I used to service several dozens of SaaS companies a month when we didn't have any software to help us.

The idea was that I need to have one core template that I can use to quickly onboard companies around $1m in revenue, while keeping it modular enough to add more complex forecasts or metrics for companies in the $5-20m range. (Not all of those more complex pieces are in this template though).

I'd appreciate any feedback on the model! There's definitely a lot of legacy stuff I would do differently if I were to start over.

I'm planning to update it this fall to make it simpler to get started, while keeping the structure robust enough to keep adding forecasts & reports over time. Maybe a video how-to would make the learning curve a little less steep as well.

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Jaakko also founded the SaaS financial planning software Flightpath, mentioned in the post: https://www.flightpathfinance.com/

The example in your blog post. Are those numbers close to reality? I’m just blown away by the CAC in the SaaS world.

It's all dummy data which makes the metrics sometimes look a little wacky, but I tried to model everything based on real-world examples I've seen.

The Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) is high, but so is the ARPC (Average Revenue per Customer), so you can't just look at the one number in isolation to see if it's realistic or not.

In this case, I'd look at the CAC Payback time and the CAC:LTV ratio to see if these acquisition costs would be realistic in any kind of a company. The payback time climbs from 6-8 months to 19 over time, which is a pretty clear indication that this is unlikely to be a bootstrapped company. They just wouldn't have the capital to sustain it long-term, unless they sell mostly multi-year deals paid in advance.

For a VC Company, 19 months would be on the high end for sure, but not unheard of. Dated, but still great article from Tom Tunguz[1] says the SaaS median is 15 months, indicating there are a lot of companies with longer payback times.

Finally, if you look into the future projections you'll notice that the payback time grows to 26 months. Unless you have clear understanding why this should happen, this is more likely an indication that your forecast isn't very good. (Which, I'm realizing typing this, is quite ironic). Either your revenue growth is not fast enough in your forecast, or if it is the maximum you think you can do, your S&M spending is too high and your business just isn't sustainable. Or something else.

[1] https://tomtunguz.com/payback_period_cash/

From the link above, how did they calculate the 7.8M CAC with a 12 month payback period? I assume it is based on the data below, but how did the number end up to 7.8M:

"Let’s take a hypothetical example of a SaaS company at $625k in ARR, growing at 15% per month. The company has 25 customers each paying $25,000 and operates with an 80% gross margin. The company bills monthly."

When I looked at his example more closely, the numbers didn't make sense to me either.

I always assumed he had calculated them correctly, but looks like his projection of $2.7MM ARR in 12 months might be a typo ($625k starting ARR with 15% annual growth is $3.3M, his figure is 20% less. Maybe he accidentally calculated Gross Margin run rate).

Here's a similar example illustrating the difference between 12 month and 6 month payback at different growth rates. The cells highlighted in yellow are inputs, so you can change the numbers and see how the capital requirements will change for the year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-kaIW6uvvMBER1efk8Yz...

Jaakko mentions not being a fan of benchmarking against the average startup but, for a gut check, the recent KBCM SaaS Survey[1] puts the median blended CAC payback period (>$5MM ARR) @ 18mo using 2019 data, ~21mo using 2020 YTD.

[1] direct PDF link - https://www.key.com/kco/images/2020_KBCM_SaaS_Survey_8102020...

Thanks for sharing! This is the first time I've seen this model and looks to accomplish a lot, so will definitely have a play around with it!

Great to hear! Feel free to shoot me any questions here or on Twitter. @JaakkoPiipponen

Hi ! Thanks for sharing, it looks very comprehensive. This seems great, but quite overwhelming for very small companies. Do I need all of that between 0 and 100k ARR ? Do I need any of that in fact ? It seem all the official documents (cash flow statement, profit and loss) are made by the accountant when they are needed.

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