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Comment by neogodless | Hacker News Reader

Historically, over any 30 year span, has there been an 80% drop in market value, or a huge drop that was not preceded by a bull market? What exact sequence would have to occur for this hypothetical to have lost 80% in market value and be stuck in a market that doesn't recover quickly?

By most historical averages, after 20 years the hypothetical portfolio has grown to $2 million inflation-adjusted, which means a drop to $100k or $250k would be a whopping 87.5%+ crash.

On the flip side, a prolonged bear market in the first few years are the worst case scenario, though for most early retirees, the choices are to ignore the "fixed 5%" and/or seek additional income, if the sequence of returns really are dire enough.

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It doesn't matter whether the market stays up over 30 years. If it crashes at the wrong time (especially if that's after you've retired) and you have 100K left, you have only 3 years to recover, not 30.

And even if the market recovers in 3 years, by then you're left with a fraction of your capital.

Yet worse outcome is when you actually need the money (say, medical emergency or required big purchase) and you don't have it because market is lean or illiquid. And if you're old and retired, you will likely not get the needed loan. At the same moment, you don't have a job and if the emergency is big enough, you might not be able to get one. Even if you keep yourself updated to meet the needs of the market (which does cost money) others may not believe you.

Face it, it's temporal gambling also known as a martingale. One with ok odds but still gambling.

There are classes of assets that are less vulnerable to such downturns, but they have their own risks. (Mostly properties you live in and transportation you use.)

At the "wrong time" meaning you're at end of life, yah? By that time you're collecting SSI and have medicare. When you're really old you have less of a reason to spend, so even with a nice house that is paid off it becomes easy to not dip into retirement funds if needed.

Btw, 5% is not a safe withdrawal percent unless you're really old. Most do 4% and aim to not diminish but increase their savings in the long run while retired.

Bad hypothetical situations are bad. But have you looked at the data?

Historically, you're much more likely to have your money grow over time, such that it's much higher before a big crash, and you have ample capital to wait out a bear market.

Again, the only scenarios that resulted in running out of capital in a 4% withdrawal rate happened in the very first few years, retiring right before a very bad series of years.

If early retirement is your goal, and especially if you're a competent software developer, if the market is that bad early on (which is very rare) then you just have to change course and go back to work.

Which, other than not electing a GOP president and Congress, can't be predicted beyond rough cycles. It's scary, it's hypothetical, and combined with basic social safety nets in place today are unlikely to sink a FIRE plan that is robust.

That isn't a political statement about the GOP, it's close to fact. When did we last not enter a recession, or the possibilities of one, after the GOP held Congress and the White House? Trump, Bush, Bush Sr/Reagan. Its like part of the plan is to drive the nation broke after concentrating wealth with donors and friends/family.

Well, it stands to reason if you make the rich wealthier and everyone else poorer, there is no one to buy goods and stimulate the economy.

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