2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics | Hacker News Reader

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

electproject.github.io

51 pointsblacksqr48 comments

Regardless of what party you support, you've got to be impressed by the level of turnout this year. If we are judging by early voting alone, this is going to be a historic election.

I hope that media outlets are careful on election day given the amount of mail in ballots that will be cast. The vote may not be certified for weeks after election day and I hope the media understands the responsibility they have in not bowing into claims that it somehow says something about the legitimacy of the results.

Unfortunately, on both sides of the media aisle, that is a far-fetched fantasy.

I too would hope, but in reality, the delay will only add to the turmoil. Regardless who leads on Election Day (or night, when the physical polls are counted), we’ll see civil strife.

Hunker down, avoid certain cities with a propensity for non-peaceful civil unrest, and wait.

Having recently moved from a northern blue state to a southern red state, I have one foot in a very liberal social circle up north, and another in a very conservative social circle in the south. My friends in the north have already made up their minds that they won't accept a Trump-Pence victory. My friends in the south have likewise made up their minds that they won't accept a Biden-Harris victory. The two sides talk and think very similarly to each other, and they're making similar plans.

This will definitely be a popcorn.gif kind of election.

Maybe you're in a bubble? I work at one of the "liberal elite universities" if you believe the media rhetoric and nobody around me is just straight up ready to deny the election if their favorite team doesn't win.

Everybody I have contact with understands that it's a close race and isn't sure who is going to win. They understand that it is possible for Trump to win and not even that unlikely.

You:

> Maybe you're in a bubble?

Also you: > I work at one of the "liberal elite universities"

Well, there you go. There's your bubble.

We’re all in some kind of bubble. One way of mitigating that is to assume it to be true, and then take other people’s reports as if they are samples from other bubbles. You can then use these samples to expand your own view.

I have a friend who has one foot in very liberal circles and one in very conservative circles. In his experience people on both sides are going to accept the election result if their side loses.

I have another friend who works at an elite liberal university. The people around them understand it’s close race, and that Trump might actually win.

I personally know a democratic media strategist who disbelieves the polls and is expecting Trump to win.

People close to me who are centrist independents are going to vote for Biden, because they are worried about Trump undermining institutions and think the US needs allies, but are worried that the Democrats domestic policies might be so harmful that this. Ugh this end up being a mistake.

I am guessing that this is downvoted because it makes both sides look equally bad, and ‘bothsidesism’ is often considered problematic.

Can anyone comment on whether my guess is accurate?

Didn't downvote, but outside of the internet this just doesn't correspond to my reality. Combine that with the perception of pushing a "both sides are bad" narrative makes it seem like a partisan statement used to justify any hatred towards the other side of the aisle.

Thanks - helps to confirm my guess.

considering 61M ballots were requested in the reporting states.. and there were 128M votes in the last election, this may look like almost half of the voters plan to vote by mail ballot.

I plan on voting by remote ballot, but dropping it off at a ballot drop box.

Why should it take weeks to certify the election? Isn’t a drawn out election a serious issue?

I don’t see why it should have to take longer than a few days to count ballots.

Not to say anything about your point about drawing out an election is perhaps not optimal. But this is standard for the U.S is it not?

States have until before December 14th to certify and choose electors. Then congress will make the final certification and make the result official in January.

> I don’t see why it should have to take longer than a few days to count ballots.

To snap back with an equally uniformed answer, I don't see why anyone could think something as complicated as certifying the vote of a country the size of the USA could only take a few days!

But, in seriousness, this is how the system has always worked and just saying that you, an outsider, doesn't understand it and wants to make demands on the timescale doesn't invalidate it. There's like a bazillion moving parts behind the scenes and stuff like waiting on mail in ballots takes time. That's the cost of having an election with integrity. Read more on it here [1].

[1] https://www.vox.com/2018/11/6/18066350/midterm-elections-201...

Because you don't certify the vote of the USA. You certify votes in precincts that get a couple hundred, maybe a couple thousand votes. Then you aggregate up and up to each state and start assigning electoral votes. I was a poll watcher for many years, for both the state party and individual candidates. Our polls closed at 8PM local and by 8:10 we had certified counts sent to the county office, unofficial results taped to the door and we were headed home.

There is honestly very little reason to have election counting take days unless there are irregularities and the vote tally is very close.

Poll sites, yes. Though adding provisional ballots, which are adjudicated later, did create a spike in problems.

Central count for postal ballots, however, absolutely will take days. Please see my other comment.

Many jurisdictions have automatic recounts at certain thresholds. Another delay.

And IIRC there's 3m overseas voters. Those ballots trickle in.

Also IIRC, most jurisdictions certify their elections 3 weeks after the election day.

Given all that:

Most candidates will concede prior to certification when defeat is obvious.

And corporate media will do whatever to boost ratings.

And everyone will whine about bias, coverage, not getting enough ice cream.

I would like to hire you/your company to do vote counting. How fast can you count the votes?

And no mistakes are allowed or there will be serious repercussions, and you have to prepare to be inspected by 3rd parties that ensure count is legal and correct.

It's not the counting that takes a long time necessarily, but adjudicating the legal challenges in close elections over what ballots are valid.

Also, there are the inevitable delays caused by malfunctions in poorly designed and maintained equipment being handled by non-technical officials not competent to deal with them.

Please contact your local election administrator and observe the central count. It's open and public and absolutely needs to more independent eyeballs.

For a start, postal ballot processing is way more complicated. Your jurisdiction should have an explainer online for local rules and procedures. Something like this: https://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/education-and-out...

Just from memory, quickly, but YMMV:

  receive ballots in bins (1-400 per)
  sort ballots by precinct (hopefully)
  verify signatures (huge task)
  open outer envelope
  remove ballots
  archive outer envelopes
  scan ballots
  archive ballots

Each and every step has numerous error conditions which must be handled. Adds a lot of overhead.

Plus training of legions of workers. Plus care and feeding of the gear (it breaks). Plus normal workplace safety and security.

Ad nauseam.

Again, please tour your jurisdiction's central count, and bonus points for observing during the actual election. Legendary points for attending the election canvasing board meetings, which adjudicate all the problems that arise and eventually certify the results.

Happy hunting.

The color chosen for the map makes it seem like it's saying something about the party that's winning in each state, when it seems to be just an indicator of the number of votes received. Maybe it should be green or something instead.

I agree. I would also like it to show which states are not reporting yet on a different color from those reporting 0.

The issue can be reported here:

https://github.com/ElectProject/Early-Vote-2020G

Might be a UX mistake to show the states as blue.. that's what I thought first-- but look at the tallies below:

Party Count Percent Democrats 84,833 55.1 Republicans 24,210 15.7

So the earliest mail in voters are heavily skewed Democratic. Numbers like that make me want to say that Republicans are afraid of voting by mail this election, but it's way to early to say.. maybe it's just Democratic fear of the USPS slowing up ballots.

Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 7 points in the US overall, based on registration. Democrats are also much more likely to utilize mail-in and early voting than Republicans. Anecdotally, I know a lot of Republicans who believe COVID is a scam, won't wear a mask, etc., and so plan to vote in person as usual. These three things together, it's not at all surprising to me to see 4:1 and 5:1 ratios in mail-in ballot requests so far.

Yes, it is true that the earliest mail in voters are skewed democratic. But that is not the point that I'm making. The scale beneath the map implies that the color concentration is not based on party voting ratios, but on absolute count of all votes.

33.6% of requested ballots by 65 and over voters, a group which represent about 18% of total voters. I hope my generation is planning to vote in person.

  65 and up  3,111,071  33.6

Interesting. I wonder if it says more about who feels like they are able to safely show up to the polls?

I am in the 18-25 demographic and many people I talk with are concerned about the integrity of the USPS handling their vote after the crisis caused by DeJoy. They are scared of what shenanigans might be pulled with their mail in ballots and plan to show up in person to avoid that. Even at the cost of their health.

You might be looking at the tradeoff of people weighing their vote and their health risks.

I’m in a close demographic and have the same sentiment.

There are secure drop-off boxes for ballots.

I received my absentee ballot in the mail today and will be dropping it in the ballot box at my county registrar's office tomorrow.

Excellent! Planning to do same soon.

That's exactly my point of view as well. I'm not in the higher risk age ranges, so at this point I feel it's almost a civic duty for me to vote in person so that others who must vote by mail can do so and have their votes count.

You can usually drop off a mail-in ballot yourself too and avoid the mail.

i hope they survive the next few months

> I hope my generation is planning to vote in person.

Why is that? BallotTrax lets me see exactly where my ballot is and if it has been received. It's about the same level of transparency as inserting my ballot into the polling machine. The only difference being that at the polling machine I can see the number of counted ballots increment.

Because, given the current stats shown here on mail-in voting, most of OP's generation has not voted. And so they're hoping they'll at least be voting in person.

Voting is good, vote often. Don't be ashamed of whoever you vote for. You know what's best for you.

> You know what's best for you.

I am too cynical - said me washing down McBurger with Coke before taking a drag of my Marlboro.

Well, you do know, consciously atleast. Knowing and the habits are different parts of the brain though ;)

As an outside observer, I sympathize.

Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?

>Question for HN: What do you think will happen in November/December?

Nationwide violent rioting[1] after Trump wins more comfortably than expected, including nationwide swings toward him even in states he doesn't win, like California, New York, and Illinois. Trump wins Minnesota, and does way, way better than expected in Washington and Oregon (the latter possibly being a surprise Trump win).

[1] As in 2016

Do you think Trump will use the insurrection act?

If necessary. He'll cite the 1957 Little Rock and 1992 Los Angeles precedents.

Honestly, it's hard to predict.

I recently learned that Trump outspent, by a wide margin, Hillary in 2016 on Facebook ads. It's suspected his Facebook ads helped him beat the odds more than conspiracies of Russian interference.

Right now, I see significantly more Trump ads online than Biden ads. The polls show that Biden has a large lead over Trump, but Biden's lack of online ads could skew things.

Another odd thing: The Democrats are only doing phone canvassing, not door-to-door. Door-to-door is much more effective than phone. I don't know about the Republicans, but after seeing pictures of packed rallies, I suspect they will do some door-to-door canvassing.

So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win.

But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.

>So, from what I see, Biden has the lead in the polls, but Trump is following a pretty typical playbook to win an election. (Advertise and knock on doors.) Thus, I have no idea who will win.

Polls are vastly inaccurate even when there's just 2 options. For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear.

>But, even though I have no idea who will win, I suspect there will be a lot of shenanigans no matter who wins.

This is the interesting subject I think. I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results. That it will be Biden winning.

> I have been seeing comments on HN(primarily antitrump folks) that they aren't going to accept election results.

Citation needed, care to link to some comments making unqualified statements to this effect? I haven’t seen anything like this here.

On the other hand, I think a more mainstream sentiment is that people will not accept a premature declaration of victory on Nov 4 before all the mail-in votes are counted, but will accept the legitimate winner one the election is certified.

> For the USA, the electoral college makes polling even less clear.

You just need to look at state-by-state polls. Those are usually accurate, except for states where the election is very close.

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