Air Force Designed, Built, and Flew a Brand-New Fighter Jet In One Year
popularmechanics.com
popularmechanics.com
It really is an achievement to go from concept to first flight in a year for a modern aircraft.
I was thinking it should be written like a law:
The success of a project or goal is inversely proportional to the number stakeholders, investors and/or general labour involved in the project/business/goal.
This idea is closely related to the 80/20 rule, the cost/performance/quality decision triangle, etc.
Not knowing anything about aircraft development, they are probably much less ambitious about design specs while at the same time iterated much faster.
Among them is the statement that the SR-71 was not at the edge of the design envelope. If I recall correctly, there were substantial safety margins in most areas, "like a Chevy truck" in order to ensure the speed of development and improve the likelihood that the entire project would succeed.
The HN productivity/self-help crowd will find a lot more in there.
This passage has had the highest personal impact per word as any text I've read: You don't need Harvard to teach you that it's more important to listen than to talk. You can get straight As from all your Harvard profs, but you'll never make the grade unless you're decisive: even a timely wrong decision is better than no decision. The final thing you need to know is don't half-heartedly wound problems - kill them dead. That's all there is to it. Now you can run this goddamn place.
Also: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are/business-are...
What I wrote in my journal after joining an investment bank's equity research team:
"Good dinner with two traders, x and y; they have both been in the business for more than a decade and shared many interesting experiences and insights into the business. I did not realize that our traders very much need information flow, preferably proprietary, in order to entice their buyside counterparts to trade through them. It almost doesn't matter whether the information is accurate or not; what counts is being distinctive".
I well remember one of the traders slamming his fist on the table complaining about how a former analyst was very bad at returning phone calls, and saying that being 52% right (meaning 48% wrong) is better than a higher correct percentage but not being available.
It would be a shake-up in the current system, but is fully compatible with running a nationwide jobs program.
> The main difference is that the Air Force would flip from spending the majority of fighter program costs upfront instead of at the end of the aircraft’s life. To continuously design new fighter jets, the service would keep multiple vendors constantly under contract for the development of new planes, choosing a new design about every eight years. To make a business case that is profitable for industry, it would then buy batches of about 50-80 aircraft every year.
> The result is a 25 percent increase in development costs and an 18 percent increase in production costs. However, the price of modernizing aircraft would drop by 79 percent while sustainment costs are basically cut in half, Roper wrote in the paper.
> “I can’t make both ends of the life cycle go away; industry has to make a profit somewhere,” Roper said. “And I’m arguing in the paper that if you get to choose what color of money you use for future air superiority, make it research, development and production because it’s the sharp point of the spear, not the geriatric side that consumes so much of our resources today.”
Did Hayao Miyazaki take over Air Force procurement, or what?
EDIT: Ah, they also reduce the lifecycle to 10 - 15 years. Still wild!
The goal is to create a constant pipeline of new planes with short lead times, so that they don't need to have extended lifetimes with expensive maintenance. Personally I feel that's a better approach overall for many mobile capital-intensive systems: military hardware, public transportation and so on.
As the interview points out, smaller, more-frequent procurements reduce the risk to suppliers as well. Currently every weapons system project is a existential risk to contractors, so they quite naturally try to push as much back as possible. And so we wind up with parts being built in every Congressional district at vast expense and added complexity.
Your count at least seems reasonable.
This suggests an utter lack of familiarity with the motivations and capabilities of Musk and SpaceX. Or perhaps they merely needed some text for the link, even if it was silly text?
Wouldn't it be interesting if this isn't true tho. What if there's some stealthy startup out there trying to SpaceX the rest of the defense industry?
Apropos a 2015 DARPA program leading to flight demonstrators. So acquisition innovation to improve innovation acquisition.
[1] https://aviationweek.com/shows-events/afa-air-space-cyber-co...
Misdirection and rapid development would be my guess.
[1] https://warisboring.com/collision-course-china-claims-f-22-a...
This doesn't take away from your point of course, I just thought it was interesting.
Wouldn't a vast number of cheap remote controlled/ai driven flying explosives be more useful?