Why cycle in place at home with a Peloton instructor, when you can cycle outside with a Fitness+ instructor? Why limit yourself to your stationary Peloton bike at home, when you can use a stationary bike anywhere?
Apple can and probability will beat out Lulu Lemon's Mirror on price using motion capture on an AppleTV smartTV or Ipad.
Only startup that stands a chance is Tonal b/c of their hardware providing value.
It's the portability of being able to use Fitness+ cycle instructors on any stationary bike not just a Peloton that I think provides the most value.
When things get back to normal, you can have the instructor guide you through a workout at a hotel gym or any gym anywhere with a stationary bike.
Don't think Apple will compete with any of those soon.
I'd guess that the Apple ecosystem is very nearly a strict superset of people who have Pelotons, after all.
But you're right, it's too early to jump to conclusions.
You can easily just roll out of bed at 6 AM and jump on a peloton and safely get good exercise everyday, no matter the weather or terrain.
Please don't do this. Its not safe.