What makes you confident China will be the world's top market?
Their growth is slowing, they've got major structural issues internally, and the rest of the world is uniting against them.
The US and the West are going to stop playing nice.
Their growth is slowing, they've got major structural issues internally, and the rest of the world is uniting against them.
The US and the West are going to stop playing nice.
There are 1.4 BILLION people in China. Even if in a few decades the entire world has a similar GDP per capita, China will top the list.
It might sound weird to our modern ears. But China has always been this planet's top economy until Europe found America and then 'found' Africa.
Also, scientific power is not the same as developed market. USSR was scientifically strong, but economically weak, ask ex-Soviet citizens how the 1980s looked like - an era of queues for basic necessities.
Those exact words has been making the headlines in the newspapers since 1989 at least, every single year, and yet here we are today, at the point where the US is willing to dismantle half of the global trade only to stop China from accessing whatever useful technology it still has not bought in the West.
Or stolen.
Examples among many other include Nortel/Huawei, Chinese state hackers trying to get into ASML.
And whenever a company wants to do business in China, they need to create a subsidiary in China. The Chinese communist party has a fellow embedded in said subsidiary, and they can veto anything.
The US are particularly powerful because they are both developed and have a large population. Same for Germany in Europe.
Based on that, I don't see why China and India should remain behind the US, even if there'll of course be bumps in the road.
Education and wealth matter a lot. If China can spread this out, then we'll be talking. As it stands, their educated middle class is very concentrated.