Imagine a 0day for SSH drops tomorrow. Almost immediately script kiddies all over the world will be trying to take over everything running on port 22.
I'll also point out that we're generally talking about different threat vectors here, so it's good to lay them out. I don't think obscurity helps against a persistent threat probing your network, it helps against swarms.
> a non-privileged user can bind to a port above 10k, but can't bind to 22. sshd restarts for an upgrade, or your iptables rules remapping a high port to 22 get flushed, that non-privileged user that got access via a RCE on your web application can now set up their own fake sshd and listen in to whatever you are sending if it manages to bind to that port first and you ignore the host key mismatch error on the client side.
This is getting closer to APT territory, but I'll bite. If someone has RCE on your SSH server it honestly doesn't matter what port you're running on. They already have the server. You're completely right it would work if you have separate linux users for SSH and web server. Unfortunately that's all too rare in most web-servers I see (<10%), as most just add SSH and secure it and call it a day (even worse when CI/CD scripts just copy files without chowning them). But let's assume it here. In reality, even if you did have this setup this is a skilled persistent threat we're talking about (not quite an APT, but definitely a PT). They already own your website. Your compromised web/SSH server is being monitored by a skilled hacker, it's inevitable they'll escalate privileges. If they're smart enough to put in fake SSH daemons, they're smart enough to figure something else out. Is your server perfectly patched? Has anyone in your organization re-used passwords on your website and gmail?
You're right that these events could happen. But you have to ask yourself what's actions of yours will have a bigger impact:
* Changing to non-standard SSH port, blocking out ~50% of all automated hacking attempts. Or port-knocking to get >90% (just a guess!). * Use standard port, but you still have an APT who owns your web server and will find other exploits.