Paul Kedrosky: Go ... Elsewhere, Young Man | Hacker News Reader

Paul Kedrosky: Go ... Elsewhere, Young Man

paul.kedrosky.com

13 pointsnickb16 comments

Ah, geographical market timing. It's like trying to time the stock market, only with less liquidity!

You know, sometimes Tim Ferriss gets things right. For example, he once wrote:

What if you need to learn to do something your friends haven't done? ... If the task is how-to in nature, I only read accounts that are "how I did it" and autobiographical. No speculators or wannabes are worth the time.

Has Paul Kedrosky, resident of La Jolla, CA, ever even been in Brazil for more than a week, much less tried to get a job or start a company there? He conspicuously fails to say so.

I remember the last news.yc item like this: It was about Dubai. And, wonder of wonders, Kedrosky's sly commenters have already posted the link that threw cold water on that idea: "The Top 20 Reasons Not To Move To Dubai":

http://www.escapeartist.com/efam/94/art_20_Reasons_Not_Move_...

A good principle: Before moving anywhere, find a "Top 20 Reasons Not To Move To X" article and make sure you're okay with it. (The first item on Boston's list is probably "snow"... unless you're a news.yc reader, in which case it's probably "Boston is not near Palo Alto". )

In the spirit of full disclosure, where would I go? Brazil. While I'm painfully aware of the many problems -- infrastructure, crime, capital, corruption, etc. -- that the country still has, I love the dynamism, growth, optimism (mostly -- see my trip notes for more), etc. And it doesn't hurt that the economic numbers are generally good too, with some exceptions.

I have thought about this a bit, and disagree. Going where there are problems that have been solved elsewhere is counterproductive. Something I think about frequently is "when is the US going to have real public transportation, like Japan". I think that's basically never going to happen, so the solution is not to stay here and try and fix it; you'll waste your whole life. The solution is to move to Japan where they've already solved this problem.

In his example, he mentions Brazil's problems: infrastructure, crime, capital, corruption, and so on. Do you really want to be distracted from your real work by crime and lack of infrastructure? Do you really want to be distracted from your real work by trying to fix an entire society? You just aren't going to do it. Go somewhere where these problems have been solved, so you can use your brainpower to solve new problems.

I think this is the same reason tech startups want to be in San Francisco; the problem of finding like-minded people has already been solved. Sure, I could try meeting technical folks in Chicago, but there just aren't many of us. Why try and fail to solve this problem when there are other things to worry about?

Some of my father's friends live in Rio de Janeiro and when there is a robbery - it's not like in the States - they rob all of the customers too - they lock the doors of the supermarket and demand the purses and wallets of everyone. It's happened to them several times.

Makes me double-think about living down in Latin/South America - many things I assume/take for granted (like being able to drink clean tap water) sometimes don't exist in second/third-world countries

The robbers must have seen Pulp Fiction ;-)

If you're willing to forego working with your brain in favor of physical labor, western Canada is probably one of the few places in the world that you can make a 6 digit income right out of high school.

And Western Australia is another.

Details on each?

Western Canada is housing construction and oil, right? Calgary?

Oil, natural resources in general, driving construction like you said. Saskatchewan (to the east of Alberta) has some oil, but also has the world's largest supply of potash, the price of which has tripled over the last few years. And British Columbia to the west has the 2010 Winter Olympics driving construction.

Culture, law and basic infrastructure matter more than some of us realize. If you are waiting in line for half a day to pay your utility bills or if things, a lot of us take for granted, such as sewers and potable water are not available then its not worth it.

Sure, entrepreneurs succeed in any environment but fighting against the environment is not the only problem that should be taking up an entrepreneurs resources.

I don't know if that's great advice business wise, but if I look at my life, moving to Italy was the source of a huge amount of growth and learning. I also met and married an intelligent, beautiful woman there, which helps me stay positive even as Italy itself gently decays.

It goes against fashion these days, but I reckon it's still the USA. Anyway, I would go to Cambridge, MA.

Much of South America looks promising. I'd probably avoid Brazil and head to Argentina though, the world's spanish speaking market is huge.

You'd be best off in Santiago, IMO. Lower taxes, little/no corruption, lower crime, etc. Not a bad place from which to serve the Spanish-speaking market. Keep in mind, though, that SV is still a better place to be.

Santiago is more expensive, but you're otherwise correct.

...and has terrible pollution.

But don't jog there, because you'll be less likely to pass a Starbucks with a bathroom.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com