The coronavirus is mutating – does it matter? | Hacker News Reader

The coronavirus is mutating – does it matter?

nature.com

20 pointsbookofjoe15 comments

A well written update on the SARS-CoV-2 D614G spike mutation. The D614G mutation has become the dominant form in Europe and North America. In the lab, D614G seems to attach to cells more readily than the original non-mutated spike. The dominance of D614G could be due to a founder effect or that it somehow outcompetes viruses with the original non-mutated spike without changing the pathogenesis of the disease; the discomforting possibility that it has been selected for greater infectivity.

To counter the possible "bad news" lab results, is the possible "good news" lab results that some vaccines seem to work more effectively against viruses with the D614G mutation.

TLDR (corrections welcome):

D614G is a mutation relating to the spike that the virus uses to infect cells. It doesn't change the spike protein itself but opens up the prongs of the spike, making the spike work better for infection.

A spike that works better has been confirmed in the lab under very artificial circumstances, but it hasn't been confirmed that it makes any difference in the real world.

Over time, this D614G mutation became very common, now near 100%. You might assume this is the result of natural selection, but one scientist says when the population has zero immunity, there might not be any practical difference between pretty infectious and even more infectious, so there would be no selection.

Other mutations have happened too, some of which change the protein of the spike. Antibodies you already have might be ineffective (or less effective) against a modified spike protein. Antibody therapies that use a cocktail instead of a single antibody would fare better against this. Vaccines and natural infection already create a variety of antibodies.

Overall the virus mutates pretty slowly, which is good. Once the population has more immunity, it might change the rules of the evolution/mutation game a bit, and things could be different then.

As I mentioned below, Central Asian region has its own, D614A mutation (so no, not 100%). And god knows how many others are around, in lesser known corners of the world.

I doubt even if it becomes ten times less lethal people are going to exit panic mode.

On the flip side, it could become 10x MORE lethal, and people would still be blissfully ignoring it.

True - the major modes of consuming media have cemented this too.

It doesn't benefit anyone to say that things aren't worth panicking over. In terms of politics and worldview, things must be dire otherwise there's substantially less reason for protesting, voting one way or the other, enforcing draconian laws, passing unimaginably large stimulus, etc.

I dunno. It's been well known for a while that the first vaccines are likely to have substantially less than 90% effectiveness, but most leaders are still pointing to a widely distributed vaccine as the end of panic mode.

Could you cite this assertion? The data that I've reviewed shows a pretty robust immune response, especially given a booster within 1 month. This is specifically for the mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna.

Please also remember, when speaking of the United States, around 15% of the population has already been infected by SARS-COV-2[1], and even the most pessimistic of epidemiologists say that herd immunity is around 60%. So we need "infect" 45% more of the population to give COVID-19 a knockout blow. even 50% efficacy (which I believe is the standard lower bound for an approved vaccine), 300 million doses should do quite nicely (600 if you count boosters, which I should have).

Those are all worst case scenarios. Most likely, the efficacy will be higher than 50% (maybe not 90%, but I think 75% is safe) and most likely herd immunity is below 60% (due to heterogeneity in mixing and t-cell "immunity").

Things are looking up!

[1] https://covid19-projections.com/us

The BBC had an interesting article on the "hidden protection from COVID19" from T-cell "immunity":

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-...

The article references this paper:

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

"Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in 40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."

D614G is old news. Here, in Central Asia, (in Uzbekistan, probably in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan too) , we have new mutation emerged, D614A. It appears to be slower spreading but deadlier than D614G. It was discovered accidentally by South Korean doctors, during the routine airport checks of people coming back to Korea from Uzbekistan. But, hey who cares about obscure -stans; neither first-world, nor large third-world countries.

Your information seems to come from a pre-print on MedrXiv [1], but not all your claims are supported. Especially the spreading rate and "deadliness" of the new mutation are not mentioned in the paper. The paper (which has not been peer reviewed) only notes the discovery of this new mutation. If you have other sources, I'm open for more information.

If you are wondering why D614A is not mentioned in the Nature article: the preprint has been out for 2 days (Nature published yesterday) and this information is only based on a single pre-print, not a peer-reviewed scientific article. I don't think saying "who cares about obscure -stans" is fair towards the author of this article.

[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20184721v...

It has been discovered long time ago, in early August (at least I first heard about it back then) and have been known for quite awhile, but no one paid attention, except for those who lives in Korea and Central Asia. I do not have proofs, but I live in that area, in a major Central Asian city and I can observe myself - say whatever you want, anecdotal evidence etc.; the article you've linked for some reason is actually by South Korean scientists, and of course they would care. I guarantee you, no one will ever care about what happens in less known localities; ex-USSR is not some glamorous location and is often ignored.

Well, unless you can come up with a source (any source, even if it is in your native language), I can't judge your claims other than "made up". There's enough unsubstantiated (mis)information out there about sars-cov-2, we don't need you to post more without evidence.

If you insist here is a proof that is been know at least for a month (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/south-korea-finds-new-...). Emergence of a mutation in relatively big (33 mln people) country is definitely a major event, yet the information is still scarce, which is puzzling. I have no idea why, but I am used to the reality of ignoring my region. I understand there is a type of people, especially in places like HN, who require some rubber-stamped peer reviewed proofs for everything, but for these "reliable sources" to appear at first place, the issue has to catch attention of the scientific world. It is not catching attention, not even tiniest mention in the articles, such the linked by the OP. It puzzles me, and make me think that there might be other mutations, which are not known, in places like ex-USSR.

Nothing in your source about the mutations being slower to spread or more deadly. In fact, the mutations aren't named and D614A is not mentioned. None of your claims held up to even the slightest scrutiny. Your credibility has officially been lost and I will not reply to you any further.

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