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Comment by oblio | Hacker News Reader

> No, we wouldn't. We would have a massive increase in immigration to offset the difference.

Sorry, but this is so naive. Or I guess, a superiority complex? Where do you think you will be able to import ~160 million people from, for the US, within a relatively short time span? With comparable cultural and educational backgrounds, skill sets, etc. This would be unprecedented in the history of the world. At least for peaceful migrations. Keep in mind that all developed countries are having demographics problems and therefore competing over migrants compatible with their current populations.

And let's not even open the can of worms of what the locals would think about such tectonic population shifts. A much smaller but similar situation happening over a longer time span (60 years) brought you Trump.

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> Sorry, but this is so naive. Or I guess, a superiority complex?

Or basic knowledge of immigration statistics.

Visa applications vastly outnumber the amount issued. Of the 330 million people living in the US, ~45 million are foreign born. Increasing the amount of allowed immigration could easily make that number larger.

This wouldn't have to happen in a short time span. 50% fewer people having children doesn't mean 160 million people disappear overnight. It means that the number of yearly births goes from 3.8 million to 1.9 million. About 1 million immigrants arrive each year currently [1]. Doubling immigration would make for a stable population. This is more than achievable.

In fact, this dynamic already exists in the US, and has existed for years now. The US's birth rate is below replacement rates. But the US continues to have a growing population due to immigration.

1. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/08/20/key-finding....

To further reinforce your point. Many countries around the world have been trying to attract people to compensate for these issues and are struggling (Japan, Australia, New Zealand).

No, and what oblio wrote completely does not apply to NZ and Aus.

Japan is completely different from NZ and Australia, which are two very multicultural countries. I've heard that Japan tries to get people in on work visas to do stuff like aged care, but will never ever let them become citizens/permanent residents. Maybe they are struggling, I don't know.

I'm a NZer, and like the USA we certainly don't struggle to attract immigrants, and even so, non-European immigrants are not just welcome, they're the majority. I'm not aware that immigration settings are that way to keep the population growing; rather the aim is to bring in people with skills that are in shortage or to do low-paid jobs that locals don't want, especially aged care and fruit picking (equivalently: keep wages and prices low). The fertility rate is 1.81, but the population is growing fairly quickly.

Same in Australia. In fact, Australia is even more desirable (probably because of the higher wages).

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