That said, I don't think it really matters what how the average Belarusian sees it. Russia (specifically Putin, and probably many of his generation) sees a democratic revolution as 1989 stuff, and as a weakening of their "buffer."
Nothing is ever 100% but I think it's likely that most want Lukashenko gone. We can't know for sure without a free election. That's the point.
As I said, I do think mistakes were made in the past. Ukraine's simultaneous moves towards NATO and the EU were a bad idea, for world peace. That did not justify Russian intervention though, and it does not justify it now. It may even be for the best if the US stays at arms length. The EU, imo, should not. This concerns our interests and security just as much as it concerns Russia's.