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Comment by 256lie | Hacker News Reader

Is that a bad thing? Tesla's consumer base is not large or diverse enough to be representative of the national economy or population.

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It's bad for Tesla shareholders. Doesn't mean it's bad for anyone else.

It's a bad look on the SP500 if Tesla continues its rise and shareholders of the SP misses out on gains because of this "committee decision".

>It's a bad look on the SP500 if Tesla continues its rise

It's a bad look if TSLA crashes and takes people's retirements funds down with it because of this "committee decision".

Not if it's algorithmic. The issue is that you have a committee making arbitrary decisions.

What about a committee making informed decisions based on their area of expertise?

They will get included sooner or later.

Yes, when the fundamentals are sound.

Fanboys excluded, it is bad for those who've speculated on a demand if the company is included in the index.

But those are the joys of day trading; increased risk.

Inclusion in the S&P doesn’t always indicate a big upside. I recently heard a podcast that suggested the opposite. If TSLA’s rise was based on such speculation, it deserves to fall.

Tesla's stock is the 8th most popular stock on Robinhood.[1]

Tesla was the 9th largest company listed in the United States by market cap.[2]

1: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/03/here-are-the-top-1...

2: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-surpas...

This logic is how bubbles form. "Lots have people have dumped tons of money into it" is not proof the company is doing well.

No, but it is proof that it's large and widely held. The comment I'm replying to said it wasn't either.

Stock owners aren't a consumer base.

Tesla sells globally, literally operates the largest car charging network in the world, they have stores and service centers all over the globe. They the major players in EV in all major EV markets, US, Europe, China.

There is absolutely no reason to exclude them based on your criteria.

And also, there is no evidence that these stock prices changes are related to S&P 500 at all. It doesn't really matter for Tesla if they are in the S&P 500.

Edit:

What the hell is it with downvoting? Tesla is a global 24.58 billion USD revenue company. There is LITERALLY no indication in the S&P guidelines that Tesla doesn't fulfill some requirement. That's a simple fact no matter if you like Tesla or not.

Again, I couldn't care less if Tesla is in the S&P500 or not, but there is no series argument against it.

Here's one: Its stock gets meme'd to the moon.

It's a target for mass retail speculation and options trading that make its stock an ill measure of the company's actual performance.

> literally operates the largest car charging network in the world

Qingdao TGOOD’s network is almost 8x larger than Tesla’s.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-10-15/china-ele...

Based on some metrics. In terms of how much travel it allows, how fast it charges and so on and so on. Call it the best, the most impressive or whatever you like. Clearly they are a major global player and that was may point.

> They the major players in EV in all major EV markets, US, Europe, China.

https://insideevs.com/news/442139/norway-etron-eqc-sales-aug...

In a more mature EV market like Norway where there's actual competition and consumer choice, Tesla isn't doing so hot. From the article:

    Audi e-tron - 755
    Mercedes-Benz EQC - 595
    Polestar 2 - 504 (according to separate source)
    Volkswagen e-Golf - N/A (511 total with ICE; mostly BEV)
    Hyundai Kona Electric - N/A (413 total with ICE; mostly BEV)
    MG ZS EV - 281
    Nissan LEAF - 270
    Tesla Model 3 - 264 (total Tesla brand: 348)
    Renault ZOE - 221
    BMW i3 - 152

That's about a 7% market share (edit: New car sales in Norway, August, 2020) for Model 3, 9% for all Tesla models combined.

If the VW group is already outselling Tesla in Norway 5 to 1 just in the BEV category, how can Tesla's market cap be 4 times higher than VW's? It fundamentally doesn't make sense.

Using one month of data from one small country is honestly the most embarrassing argument I have ever seen on Hacker News.

New BEV car sales January to August 2020 in Germany:

Tesla: 10.6%

VW Group: 35.3%

Tesla had a fantastic first mover advantage, they're not making bad cars, but they're not special anymore. And in the real world, with competition, they're simply not stacking up very well. The trend is pretty clear to me. The stock market obviously disagrees, though.

Tesla is 28% full EV market and if you include Plug-in hybrids (you shouldn't) its 20% of the global market in the first half of 2020 and they have been improving their global market share consistently over the last couple years. But don't let real evidence stop you form selecting specific data samples that prove your point you want to make.

No company in its right mind could hold 30% of the total car market, but what is actually surprising is that unlike many analysis's predicted, their global market share has been going up. Maybe the next round of Tesla killer is finally gone do something.

You are comparing Tesla to the largest auto maker in its home market during a global pandemic where Tesla has to export their car from California (yes they are insane enough to build cars in California) and they have to pay tariffs.

Tesla is building a gigantic factory in the middle of Europe until then Tesla will not have the market leading position in Europe while all European companies dumb their vehicles in Europe first. I still expect Tesla to big a significant junk of the European market going forward.

OP points real evidence for BEV.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/15/tesla-had-28-of-worlds-...

If anything, it's slightly generous to Tesla, as Norway's ASP for cars is very high. Across Europe, they took about 8% of the market in the first half, down from 18% last year.

I believe Tesla is facing real competition in Europe now, and it's a lot of fun to watch versus the (not undeserved) US Tesla monoculture.

But you can't use Model 3 sales in Q2 or Q3 (as of yet) to show how well or poorly Tesla is doing. They batch produce their EU cars, and the shutdown meant they essentially skipped Model 3 deliveries in Q2, and Q3 is only beginning to spool up.

It's possible the Model 3 will lose its EU crown to the ID.3, but sales will once more be strong.

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