This is a supremely surprising conclusion, especially in 2020. Is instruction count really still tied to wall clock count? I would have thought that some instructions could be slower than others (especially on x86) so that using more faster individual instructions could be faster than 1 slower instruction. Similarly, cache effects & data dependencies can result in more instructions being faster than fewer instructions.
I think what the author is trying to say is that when evaluating micro-optimizations, cycle counts are pretty valuable still because you're making a small intentional change & evaluating its impact & usually the correlation holds. The dashboard clearly still measures wall-clock since just comparing instruction count over time would be misleading.
I'm curious if the Rust team has evaluated stabilizer to be more robust about the optimizations they choose: https://emeryberger.com/research/stabilizer/