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Comment by paulpauper | Hacker News Reader

Entertaining and wrong. confuses cause and effect. The surging stock market leads to the rise in implied volatility, not the other way around. This s a common occurrence and not indicative of manipulation. This pattern happened in 1997-2000 too. The S&P 500 and volatility rose together for 3 years strait.

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A rising stock market almost always leads to a drop in implied volatility. A falling stock market leads to an increase in implied volatility. The spot VIX is inversely correlated with the S&P.

I mean just look at the spot VIX. It hit 38 at the peak of the crashing yesterday, and settled around 30 today. [1] 0.3 delta option premium on S&P 500 index futures (/ES) is up 50% from a few days ago.

[1] https://www.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500

up to a certain point it does. but not when the gains become too steep. Imagine if the S&P 500 was to go up 100% in a single day. now the range of potential price movement has been increased dramatically, so instead of the annual volatility parameter being around .15 or so for option pricing formulas, it is a much higher value, hence higher implied volatility.

In a sense, I suppose. A simultaneous rise in the VIX and the S&P usually precedes a crash. That's why I bought puts 2 days ago.

Good luck. I wish I had the stones for that.

Haha I’m very much an amateur, and this is a strategy I’m going to backtest first.

The tail has been wagging the dog for a very long time.

I have been researching this aspect of the options and futures market for along time.

Many of my strategies factor in the weight of when the derivatives markets are controlling underlying prices. You can often take advantage of how markets are formed, and stop using those strategies when something macro is occurring.

I used to trade butterflies back in the early 2010s for this, the max pain concept is based around this as well.

Its only funny that Softbank is the perpetrator because it is so large and full of dumb money whose LP's are recipients of money supply expansion. Thats a new scale for the options market.

I’m sympathetic to your argument, but what’s the evidence one way or the other?

Yeah seriously. If someone knew why stocks are failing they would be rich. Similarly, why they are rising. The only reason is someone is buying and someone is selling, any other reason is to get clicks.

Yesterday's drop you could see it coming 5-days ago but if you had gone in 5-days ago you would not be making money today, so it's hard to just time it that well. RSI was high, volume was drying, many other indicators.

Edit: To add let's not forget there was a huge run on Tech so everyone is re balancing. This is a BTD opportunity.

The standard response to anyone who posts something like this is still “post positions or stfu,” correct?

Not here. And if you try that on WSB you'll need more name-calling.

Here were my positions yesterday. I got hit up on AAPL/TSLA which were being held from a day earlier. However, during the market this is what I did:

executed: BTO SPY 2020-Sep-09 340 Put @ 2.39 DAY executed: BTO SPY 2020-Sep-09 340 Put @ 2.72 DAY executed: STC SPY 2020-Sep-09 340 Put @ 2.90 DAY

At peak it was 40%, but I just needed the 10% to make up all my losses. Then I got onto calls:

executed: BTO SPY 2020-Sep-09 350 Call @ 1.82 DAY

Were up 25% today but I held them as the market is still strong.

Are your Puts naked?

Long puts don't need collateral. Since he said "BTO" instead of "STO", naked or not is not applicable.

BTO = Buy to Open (open the position)

STO = Sell to Open

When selling calls, you want to hold the underlying, else you're naked. When selling puts your coverage is cash

All my positions are always posted. My Discord is open.If you read my post, I did not say I made money on this drop, but I did see it coming, however, I am bullish, so I am not going to flip a switch on a whim. Look at all my posts in my #updates channel the last 2-days. I have called this is a fake out and a rebound.

Think about this when you read a news article and they make a statement, what are this person's credentials? Since they are useless, go look at fundamental/technical analysis instead of media noise.

Edit: New TSLA position taken: executed: BTO TSLA 2020-Sep-11 490 Call @ 8.09 DAY

Interesting position. I like it.

It took me a bit of time to realize you can make money “out of the money” with options.

With options you make more money selling the option before expiry so the out of the money will have more theta value so you will likely get paid more. Also if theta is higher and the cost of the contract is low, you are getting more for premium (extrinsic) versus intrinsic value.

TSLA $490C expiring 9/11 now worth $0.65

Nice play

TSLA $490C expiring 9/11 now worth $0.50 at close

So I lost $800 per contract but I made $30,000 per contract on my last trade so does it affect me? Shit happens. You take your losses. Market is still fine. I don't know if your nice play comment was supposed to be some smart alec reddit comment however if it was then continue being someone's personal slave. Thanks.

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