Note that the worst long-term outcome of this was probably decline in trust of vaccines. Government regulators are in a position of significant trust on this stuff, and the consequences if that was damaged would be disastrous.

Realistic worst case: there are some minor complications, and some people will get hurt. This has happened before: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/concerns-history.... , which is why we have such strict guidelines for vaccine development today.

Realistic bad case: the vaccine is not at all effective and does absolutely not protect from (re-)infection, but gives everyone post-covid19-fatigue. It will also be giving anti-vaxxers actual arguments and getting Trump re-elected.

> nearly 400,000 children had been inoculated with Cutter polio vaccine and 250 cases of atypical paralytic polio occurred. There were also reports of the Wyeth pharmaceutical company polio vaccine causing paralysis and death in several children in the northeastern United States. 19 , 21

> It was soon discovered that some lots of Cutter and Wyeth polio vaccine were insufficiently inactivated with formalin leading to live polio virus in more than 100,000 doses. In fact, 16 lots of Cutter polio vaccine were retested and the first six lots produced were positive for live polio virus. These incidents demonstrated the lack of oversight and safeguards put into place before the vaccine was made so widely available.