Ex-Neuralink employees describe rushed timelines clashing with science’s pace
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Tesla's self driving division will really have to include a beheading life insurance policy for me to buy their cars after the shit that came out on Twitter about how things are done in their "move fast, break things, kill people" organization.
Like what?
[1]: https://twitter.com/atomicthumbs/status/1032939617404645376
Every single time that I took on work as a contractor for "Serious" BigCo, I was shocked by how much worse they were handling all of it. Literally no exception. For some of the chaotic startups I worked for, I wasn't too surprised, but this was the norm everywhere.
For example, as a contractor I'd be able to take entire continents' high-traffic websites offline for a particular media company, probably costing them a noticeable amount of money. Not only could I do this, but I could still do so more than a year after I had left the company.
I suppose having the resources to open up a can of lawyers makes a big difference though. So I'm still very careful personally.
- Real leaders everywhere
Unfortunately with the way things are, outside of public research, the only way to fund a project of this nature is with large amounts of hype.
Made me go from hating driving to loving it
You're not driving when on Autopilot... So you still hate driving: it's the riding you love.I don't doubt your point, just looking for magnitude here.
Parent probably should have quoted the figures, but they're frequently cited (so somewhat assumed, I guess) in such discussions, and very easy to find on the net.
From [0] I see:
"1.13 deaths per 100 million miles traveled."
Naive scaling to 3 billion, that'd be ~34 deaths in non-Tesla Autopilot driving.
Parent is correct that humans are poor at risk management.
Another common refrain when talking about auto-driving technology is that it doesn't need to be perfect -- just better than humans. And that's a much lower bar.
[0] https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state...
Joe Schmuck who didn't replace his tires and was driving home after a 12 hour shift when his brakes failed and he died counts as much as a guy in a luxury vehicle that drives under a semi.
Joe Schmuck should get the same safety features. To do so, you must drive down per unit costs through scale. I bought our Teslas because expensive cars need to get sold to pay for cheaper cars.
Thanks - this kind of friendly and helpful advice is the only way I'll learn.
> Joe Schmuck who didn't replace his tires and was driving home after a 12 hour shift when his brakes failed and he died counts as much as a guy in a luxury vehicle that drives under a semi.
I can't work out what point you're trying to make here, other than perhaps implying that the statistics I cited, from the source I cited, don't accurately represent your opinion about some subset of the driving population.
GP wanted, but could not look for, comparative figures. These were provided. If you want to argue the legitimacy of them, let's do that - show me (other) numbers.
Anecdotally tesla put a lot of effort into making a car with great crash protection, so if we are evaluating only the autopilot then comparing tesla's death rate to a 1990s fiat or a car people buy to drive badly like an impreza doesn't seem right.
With that said, leading causes of freeway accidents are, falling asleep, bad lane following, and drivers failing to realise the traffic ahead has stopped. These are all about human inability to stay focused. So we shouldn't assume that in a simplified environment like a freeway, autopilot is going to lose up humans.
Raw numbers are 34 / 3b in non-Autopilot, and 6 / 3b in Autopilot - so that's 5.7:1 ratio.
I'm not 100% clear on how you're arriving at 10:1 ?
> Anecdotally tesla put a lot of effort into making a car with great crash protection, so if we are evaluating only the autopilot then comparing tesla's death rate to a 1990s fiat or a car people buy to drive badly like an impreza doesn't seem right.
I guess we'd have to review numbers of 1990's fiats, and indeed every other car on the road, the crash safety profile, and compare -- but this seems onerous.
The fact that the Tesla vehicles are sold as a whole package - autopilot engineered around capabilities of the car, including withstanding crash scenarios - could in good faith be compared with every other car (without analysing them all in detail) using vanilla statistics on crash events, yes?
Or, humans rightly assessed that despite marketing to the contrary autopilot only really works on the easiest part of driving (highway miles) and still managed to kill 6 people.
Is that not what Autopilot is sold as? Does it not make you read and accept a disclaimer stating exactly this?
A click wrap legal disclaimer after you already purchased the thing is in no way what something is sold as. It literally can’t be - because you have already bought it.
We're talking about a technology with the potential to cause accidental aneurisms and lobotomies. Maybe some conservatism really is in order?
I ask this because we've had everything from chernobyl to the Columbia rocket explosion. We didn't hamstring those things. We got better at anticipating them.
Some rather common edge cases go ignored. Unless they've updated Waymo in the last couple of months, they still fail to distinguish when they have a reserved destination lane when making right turns, as exhibited when going from eastbound Central to southbound Castro every damn day (before Castro was closed).
Self driving system vendors can claim that fewer deaths will occur with their system vs the average driver, but that mostly reflects how dangerous the "average"/distracted driver is. Those numbers are little comfort to the loved ones of someone killed in an "edge case" that a competent driver handles without injury.
The cry of every neuroscientist! The trick is how to make an ex vivo brain simalog at all.
Currently we use the brains of other animals. It gets you somewhere. I mean, you can deal with how the heart moves the brain about, how grooming and eating move the brain, you can even get seizures and ischemic events working with the tech. But, those last few percent is where all of it matters. Kinda like viewing an eclipse: the difference between 99.99% and 100% totality is everything.
And that's kinda the problem. Figuring out all the edge cases is really hard and time consuming. And making a faux-brain simalog is probably harder than just going slowly.
Not just startups, any corporation too, or retail, hospital, etc. People have another thing coming if they think this is not standard life at most workplaces.
There will always be a tit for tat between labor and employers. It’s a perpetual conflicted relationship that needs constant maintenance and compromise to achieve sane productivity.
If anyone suggests a better URL that's available to the general audience, we can change it again.
Tesla:
https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-tesla-employees-reveal-th...
https://www.ccn.com/tesla-elon-musk-circus/
SpaceX:
https://www.businessinsider.com/former-spacex-employee-worki...
https://qz.com/281619/what-it-took-for-elon-musks-spacex-to-...
Well, the cars look great, the rockets look great. Now we wait and see if it works for the mind-machine interface. I don't think HN is capable of generating good predictions on this.
What can be abused will be abused!
I would love to have some sort of cybernetic implant, but I suspect mature commercial applications will only be developed after my lifetime
new technology will always empower more positive change than negative.
Empower, yes. Implement, not necessarily.What you're describing is so far beyond any social issue of today in terms of egregious and horrifying threats to society that it would just get voted out of existence so hard you'd barely know it was ever a risk.
Nobody will ever let thought intrusion come to pass.
I don't think this will come to pass as a mandate from on high, but it might come to pass as a practical device that everyone needs to function in modern society.
Or you're in an authoritarian regime where not having an implant may result in longer lines, less financing options, no plane access, harder train access, and direct pressure on/from friends.
I'm not worried about those things happening in Canada tomorrow though.
More simply put, things we'd give people felonies for tech companies (and others) get a pass.
I could believe this dystopian future, especially as political forces continue to form stern camps whose only substantive difference is an opposing view to the other.
They are just as likely to create policies to the benefit of their wallet, especially when they do not comprehend a topic.
Human rights will take steps backwards if it's necessary to keep an economic advantage.
If thought intrusion has any productivity value, a less scrupulous nations will take that advantage, and deregulation by more scrupulous nations will be re-framed as gaining necessary competitive advantage, and will be demanded by unemployed citizens and business minds alike.
They've managed to do a few other pretty evil things recently, though. And they're going to keep trying until they get it through. They only have to win once, and then no government is going to voluntarily give up the extra power and control.
¹ We are https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/GenreSavvy
Quality, cost, speed; I’d pick quality and speed.
It's like spending time developing a sprue-cutting process is going to be wasted when in the next iteration you refine the manufacturing process to no longer leave sprues connecting moulded parts.
Doing what Musk does is a skill, and a pretty scare one at that.
It's not a statement I agree 100% with, but it's definitely the case these days that individual workers are not given enough credit. It's also the case that the owners, executives, and other high-ranking management types are given far too much credit for successes and far too little blame for the failures.
Unless every employee who has quit documents convincing literature they don’t get any of my attention.
I think more relevant though, would be Tesla's hype around "Autopilot" when they still can't reliably avoid parked cars.
And this isn't that impressive in the slightest.
It's a great product and genuinely impressive, but you're comparing specialist vs generalist hardware. Half an order of magnitude improvements are table stakes, otherwise it's crazy not to just buy off the shelf.
My 2070 Super does 9 TFLOPs but it's paired with an 3900X which barely does 1... is my graphics card an order of magnitude better than my CPU?
I think it's likely that OP was genuine and not snarky, Mr.Dang.
As in, since Musk is known to not be 'punctual' as he himself has said in his presentations, since he is known to not have these two in sync 1. Announcement of products with production dates 2. Actual product market release dates, OP may have meant he is surprised Musk seem to be rushing with Neuralink and not delaying as seem to be the case with his other companies.