>And yet, inflation is likely to achieve an effective rate of 0.44% this year.
I don't know how to construct even a vague estimate of coming inflation.
On the one hand, TIPS are paying a real rate of about -0.4% for 30 freaking years. If I'm not completely confused, that's saying people think locking up your money for three decades and getting less than 90% back in constant dollars is a good deal. Which sounds like deflationary expectations.
On the other hand, gold seems to be going up in the same exponential way as Apple stock. Warren Buffett supposedly was buying a gold miner.
On the third hand, the Fed seems to have declared they will stop at nothing to print money as long as unemployment is high. If they want inflation to be at least 2%, surely they can get it there?