> "For this post, I’m going to take artificial general intelligence (AGI) to mean an AI system that matches or exceeds humans at almost all (95%+) economically valuable work."
One doesn't have to be "economically valuable" to be considered intelligent. Think of philosophy majors, for instance.
Now, imagine an AI that could replicate the intelligence of a 6 year old; it wouldn't be "economically valuable" at first, but it would keep learning, year after year, until it exceed humans.
Wouldn't that be a prime example of an AGI? Or would it only be accepted as such when it matched or surpassed humans "at almost all (95%+) economically valuable work"? What if it decided to pursue a degree in philosophy?
When it happens, we will be way past the first AGI, and entering the singularity.