So far.
There is no great reason to think median and higher income jobs will be hammered while the economy is in recovery mode (and lower income job openings are also soaring).
The US is back up to 5.8 million job openings, up from around 5 million at the bottom. By contrast, at the bottom of the great recession there were only ~2.3 million job openings. This recession has been a far weaker hit to the overall job market, very sharp and short as one would expect from a temporary forced shutdown.
Americans are finally doing what they should have been doing months ago - wearing masks, social distancing better, being more pragmatic regarding the pandemic, which has resulted in the case numbers being cut in half from the peak five weeks ago (along with a correlating large plunge in hospitalizations). If people ingrain that behavior, it'll be very helpful through the Winter, when the Covid mortality rate is likely to spike higher (ie it may help avoid another full lockdown, better bridging the economy from here to a vaccine). There is an old quip (possibly incorrectly attributed to Winston Churchill) about Americans eventually doing the right thing after trying everything else, that appears to again apply with the pandemic.
That's a big brush statement considering we've never done a shutdown like this before. Sure, it can inch back but consumer confidence is essential. It's difficult to imagine confidence growing when approx half the population is going to be sold a vision of unrest, distrust, mismanagement, and so on.
A self-fulfilling prophecy isn't out of the question.
Over the last few weeks, I've realized that people are okay with the risk in exchange for getting back their normal lives. Six months into the pandemic, it's also clear that while it is serious, it isn't the civilization ending pandemic we initially thought it was.
If you look at the USA age distribution of 65+, the death rate of those above 65+, and assume 50% only get it because herd immunity we're talking about ~4M deaths.
Yes, not civilization ending but Losing >1% of your population isn't something to just brush off either.
Of course if there's a vaccine then it'll be much better but this is just the USA and now think on a global scale.
Not all countries will be able to afford the vaccine, not all countries will be able to get access to it in time, not all countries will be able to produce it by themselves at scale, etc.
Let it sink in what a 1% population loss looks like on a global scale, 78M deaths.
I think this is why the markets have been so bullish. How much financially better do developed countries with retirement plans look if they didn't have to pay out ~7% less of all retirement payments.
these are staggering numbers, that have and will have staggering effects. think how many people go into building, maintaining and flying a simple airbus 320. everyone from airbus, to its engineers, suppliers, everyone on delta, etc., is absolutely impacted if that plane is not flying.
this trickles down into private travel which hits even more well paying jobs that build/maintain/support/fly those aircraft.
travel is simply not some dumpy motel in some dumpy town going out of business, travel/tourism has tremendous implications.
Look at how people are behaving in states that re-opened. Given the clear evidence of human behavior it is ridiculous to assert that a recession caused by the pandemic alone would have been as bad as the recession caused by government-enforced lockdowns. People are not acting like they are afraid. Maybe they are being stupid but that's not the point -- the point is that consumers are acting like there is no virus, and it was the government lockdown, not consumer behavior, that really hurt businesses. People were living normal lives until the day the lockdowns started, and they resumed living the same way the day the lockdowns ended, despite the clear risks to their health.
In my (large, Canadian) city they're predicting 50% or more of the local businesses failing by the end of summer / early-fall -- which isnt' far away. If the current trends continue that number may be closer to 55-60%.
Many of the business that re-opened (food, gyms, retail) are getting terrible levels of foot traffic, and several have shuttered after a couple of months of struggling. At first it was mostly local places that were already kind of marginal -- RIP my greasy local pizza place -- but now we've been seeing Starbucks Red Robin, and other chains shutting down their branches.
Eventually this is going to start cutting into real estate, ad revenue, and other white collar gigs -- some of the stories I've seen on HN reflect that.
There may not be a gigantic explosion in the stock market a la 1929 or 2008, it may just be slowly withering on the vine until you look around and realize everyone is broke. Stocks are still soaring, but 1/4-1/3 of my apartment complex neighbors are unemployed.
You have an opinion backed by real data. That's fine. Your post has value and advances a conversation.