There is some data to back up this fattening-over-time thesis: http://imgur.com/OjWoz
1) Maybe t-shirts sizes themselves are not the same between 1999 and 2008 2) Maybe the average age of the attender has not changed, so there's really no age component 3) Maybe a different demographic is now attending the conference 4) Maybe all Americans are fatter on average and programmers are just part of that trend
You'd probably also want some external data as I'm pretty sure people as a whole are getting fatter.