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The issue here is that (in the US), we've ended up with the worst of all the worlds. A case spike in NYC on the scale of Italy's, but without the same level of lockdown, and without similar widespread efforts, so instead of being down to 1 case per 100K people per day, we're 10x higher and dropping more slowly.

Combine that with a refusal to do (or for the government to enforce) simple, easy things that reduce spread even in otherwise relatively normal life (masks), and you get a situation that will require a longer, more painful response than if we did the more invasive stuff early on.

> there's quite a difference in Italy for example from the "hundreds new cases a day" in march, with a unknown size pool of undetected cases, and "hundred new cases a day" but everyone else is fine and contact tracing will find the rest.

I think you're also underestimating the difference a bit. It went from 5,000 new cases per day to ~100 per day, although there's since been an uptick to around 1000 cases per day.

But the level of containment in those nations is such that its generally safe to have offices open. Less so in most of the US.

I find very interesting that this is being downvoted. I mean, is not even a hard negationist opinion.

There is a mix of arguments and opinions in this post, in my view some are totally debatable (ie, very unlikely that everyone in NYC has been in contact with the virus, or the 'flat out wrong' characterization of the initial data), and some are totally agreeable (ie, why the issue, and the discussion of it, is political and should be debated).

But at the end of the day, is a comment that is not insulting or attacking anyone or other political positions, so why the downvotes? If it is because some people dont like any questioning of the goverment's response to the covid-19 pandemic (as vary as it is in the world) then those are just proving the point that some views are "basically ostracized and chased away as if they were flat earther or antivaxxer" which is a very very dangerous path to be in.

> very unlikely that everyone in NYC has been in contact with the virus

in contact doesn't mean has contracted. the last round of testing showed 21% prevalence over 3000 samples; if that was the prevalence in march anyone that had more than 15 contacts has 95% chance of having been in contact with the virus by now.

> I find very interesting that this is being downvoted.

since when his high majesty Paul has christened downvoting as a valid substitute for arguing disagreement things have gone downhill. funny because they got it right for submissions. tbf climate was less toxic back then. but still, it certainly doesn't feel not up to date with the recent society changes.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=117171

“but both now and yesterday people with a wide view of the issue were basically ostracized and chased away as if they were flat earther or antivaxxer”

Agreed. I’ve been quite taken aback, seeing HN’s response to Covid threads. I’ve always assumed the community was willing to ask tough questions and entertain alternative points of view that are backed by data, but with Covid there’s a complete unwillingness to think about anything other than “deaths bad, lockdown good”. It’s a shame that more nuanced comments get voted down so hard as they’re important to discuss too.

My theory: There must be something about us tech industry types that makes a ‘germaphobic’ response more likely. For instance, the WHO have said there’s no point wiping down food packaging because it just isn’t a vector for the virus. Yet I’ve seen dozens of HN comments about doing this and/or leaving groceries in quarantine for days. It really isn’t rational or logical and yet it’s this response that gets the support of the community. Very strange.

Just as an alternative perspective, I fully support lockdowns. But I have noted the opposite response on here compared to your observation; lots of people are arguing against the lockdowns on HN. Maybe we see what we want to see rather than what is actually there? Seems like a typical human bias.

Yes, clearly “lots of people are arguing against the lockdowns on HN“. My point is that if you do that, you will usually get downvoted to death.

Just like everything else these days, too many people are adopting a black or white stance on a topic when actually there’s tons of murky grey in the middle. I see way too many rational and reasonable comments get totally destroyed because they dared to question the status quo. It’s an unhealthy environment to exist in.

I think people crave rules, even if there's no evidence the rules are useful.

And in today's political/social environment - rules give the strict adherents tacit permission to abuse people (they don't even have to violate the rules) who even so little as question or critically examine the rules.