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Comment by sacred_numbers | Hacker News Reader

The herd immunity threshold depends on behavior. It may be at 30% infected when the population is wearing masks and social distancing, but could be 70% if restrictions are removed. I agree that parts of New York City have probably reached herd immunity for current behavior patterns, so restrictions can probably be slightly relaxed, but 70% of the population is still vulnerable to infection, so you can't throw caution to the wind.

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It also depends on interconnectedness of social networks. If the 30% that had it is highly concentrated in one sub group, then you might see low rates now, but high rates when groups start intermingling. Herd immunity at a national level won't save nursing homes, because almost by definition, there won't be herd immunity in that local community.

Herd immunity at a national level while protecting the vulnerable will protect nursing homes to the extent it makes introduction of the virus into nursing homes less likely. You're correct that it does nothing to help the nursing homes once the virus gets introduced there, though.

This also means large, economy-driving cities, that thrive because of interconnected social networks will be slower to reopen, while rural communities might have never effectively shut down. NYC will be interesting to watch in this regard. If interconnectedness is the economic driver we think it is, we'll see slower growth until people return to cities.

In the US, there's been some push for more national action around preventing/managing the spread of covid. While I agree that more national leadership is needed, and standard guidelines around reporting and degrees of "open" would be helpful, the US is so diverse a nation-wide lockdown never made sense, and there are enough complicated factors that the decision really has to be made at local levels.

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