Hacker News Reader

Comment by woofie11 | Hacker News Reader

Let me walk you through how this plays out.

Lawyers from Brigade and Citibank calculate Brigade's odds of winning. Let's say both sides agree it's 5%. That means the expect returns on litigating this are $8.75 million to Brigade. The cost of litigation is $2 million. The two sides discuss. They settle for anywhere between $6.75 and $10.75 million, depending on who negotiates better. That's where neither side wants to litigate.

For being a little bit douchey, Brigade walks out a few million ahead.

If sides can't agree (e.g. Citibank lawyers estimates 1% odds of winning and Brigade 10% odds), they go to court. But 9 times out of 10, it's a settlement like that.

View on HN

What complicates things, and makes it more interesting, is the precarious state of Revlon.

If they declare bankruptcy and restructure the obligations while the case is pending, Brigade would have been forced to take a loss on the loan. If they try to argue for the money as repayment for the debt, a bankruptcy court could claw back the money and redistribute according to the capital structure (akin to what happened during the Madoff resolution)

So while this dispute is ongoing, Revlon has an extra 175M of someone else's money that could be brought into play during their bankruptcy- so they actually have an incentive to declare early?

What’s the upside for Revlon in this case? I don’t think the upside outweighs the downside unless the bankruptcy is inevitable

It seems like that perhaps makes it more likely everyone will want to settle quickly. Settlement money shouldn't be subject to a clawback, so Revlon comes out ahead. And a clawback doesn't help Citi either -- they're out the full sum. At that point, Citi's money flows to help Revlon's creditors.

What's even more interesting is that you're right that a clawback like that might actually happen. In theory, justice is blind. In practice, lots of courts exercise deep justice jurisprudence, and it's hard to argue Citi should get its money before Revlon's employees or similarly worthy parties.

That actually plays to Brigade's benefit slightly, I think. If this risk is there, Citi will definitely want to settle quickly.

As I understand the situation from the article, Revlon is not a party to the case. It is therefore irrelevant if Revlon becomes bankrupt. Clawback provisions would not extend to a transaction between Brigade and CitiBank. IANAL

Reply on news.ycombinator.com