NY has 1,300 deaths per million, and NJ has 1,800 deaths per million currently. Let's take the average and say that they reached herd immunity with 1,500 deaths per million.
Great.
For the entire US (320 million), that implies 480,000 deaths before reaching herd immunity.
Does 480,000 deaths sound good to anyone?
The current death toll is around 170K, so we are talking a 300k difference.
Deaths associated with loss of work and restricted access to healthcare will certainly exceed that by the time we lift restrictions. So the sooner we get to 480k, the better.
That said, I don't have much confidence in the 480k number.
In the bay area only 3% of deaths are due to covid.