Also, the JHU map is a poor indicator, as they are clearly basing the colors on suspect data, as in this case in Nebraska, which apparently had negative new cases yesterday.
[1] https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0
[1] https://www.dropbox.com/s/uakm0cfgn2hv94r/Nebraska.png?dl=0
You completely failed to take into account people working from home, schools delaying opening and not having been in session since March or April, and all of the other measures that have been put in place to decrease transmission (masks, barriers, decreased social interactions, restaurant closings, other indoor spaces being closed, etc, etc, etc).
Your conclusion is flawed because you left all of these factors out of your analysis.
Source? This is a significant claim. Early June was a low point in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Lots of states were at peak reopening around then, as things seemed to be on the right track.
For example, bars opened in early June in Florida. They closed on June 26th after cases started spiking.
Louisiana was similar. The state started reopening May 15th. Later in June, bars were then closed back down again, and a mask mandate went into effect.
In Arizona, the story is similar, with gyms, bars and movie theaters shutting back down in July after having opened in May.
What sure seems to be the pattern is: things open up, cases rise, things close back down, cases drop. I'm not so sure that your "they aren't being more careful now than they were in early June" statement is accurate, and I think this is causing you to misattribute the cause of the drops in cases.
Miami Dade county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 2nd: https://www.miamidade.gov/global/initiatives/coronavirus/eme...
Palm Beach county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 25th: https://discover.pbcgov.org/PDF/COVID19/PBC-EO-12.pdf
Hillsborough county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 22nd (if I'm reading it right): https://web.archive.org/web/20200706143937/https://www.hills...
Broward county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on July 8th: https://www.broward.org/CoronaVirus/Documents/EmergencyOrder...
Orange county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 20th: https://www.orangecountyfl.net/portals/0/library/Emergency-S...
Pinellas county enacted a mandatory mask mandate on June 24th: https://covid19.pinellascounty.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/0...
In just this list, we're up to mask mandates that cover counties that account for 10 million people, 47% of Florida's population, and accounting for the densest population centers. A number of additional counties also enacted mask mandates, but it got a bit tedious listing them all out.
In other words, in the June-July period, mask mandates were enacted for a majority of the population of Florida.
In another comment, I critiqued this piece as being a shallow analysis. Your comment here is an example of that.
In one study showed that mask laws decreased infections by around 2% after 21 days.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.0...
So there's a good chance that masks don't account for the massive decrease in infections you're seeing in Florida.
I think time will tell if you're correct or OP is correct.
If mask laws are lifted, and infection rate still continues to decrease, that means masks are ineffective and OP is correct.
If mask laws are lifted and infection rates increase again that means you are correct as masks did have an effect.
And even if mask laws are lifted and infection rates continue going down, it does not show that masks are ineffective nor that the OP was correct. After a mask mandate, some people will continue wearing masks and social distancing. As with immunity, the efficacy is in the numbers, with a critical mass necessary to protect the "herd".
Saying we've reached herd immunity given behavioral changes is largely meaningless, as most people do not want to continue these behavioral changes indefinitely. One of the biggest changes that you failed to acknowledge is that people are not in contact with nearly as many people in their day to day life as they were before. Working from home, kids not in school, limited social interactions, etc.
It's not herd immunity if a return to previous behaviors negates the immunity.
How long will people continue to flog the 'people are continuing to be responsible' horse?
What will it take to finally accept that there's a physiological immunity taking place giving herd immunity?
My 5th grade teacher wouldn't have accepted that as homework much less should it be a mainstream news article.
You can believe what you want though
That aside.
Your point is basically that people will continue to wear masks and social distance even if laws are lifted.
I think thats wrong as evidenced by packed beaches, college parties, and black lives protests.
People are not going to be responsible, what's stopping most of these people presently is laws...and barely.
The reason the numbers are going to continue to go down is not due to behavior it's due to physiological immunity.
But you set yourself up with an unprovable argument either way with no evidence for your claims other than 'people are responsible'.
When it's abundantly clear that people are not.
This whole article is just a gut check without real evidence.
Disney is open with drastic changes to how they operate: https://www.tampabay.com/life-culture/entertainment/theme-pa...
Beaches are outdoors and while they make look crowded, people often maintain more than 6 feet between each other at the beach anyway.
The numbers are going down in Florida because people finally got a taste of how serious it is and changed their behavior.
The fact that you keep downplaying behavioral changes and completely ignoring other changes like people working from home and schools being out shows you are wedded to your conclusion. Unfortunately, it is fundamentally flawed.
You've made a extraordinary claim, the onus is on you to back it up with extraordinary evidence. A couple graphs of new cases going down and a photo of a boardwalk (where nearly everyone is in a mask) is not sufficient to support your claim.