Can you think of another reason? The states with above ~30% infection rates are now trending down. They are not being more careful. Sometimes logic is that simple.
- Mutation/Infectiousness changes - Behavioral changes - Testing changes (more/less/precision) - Reporting Changes (like changing all reporting from CDC) - Political interference/ Wishful thinking - Non-linearity (the virus has tagged the easier victims and is now moving slower into the more distanced population) - Seasonal patterns - Any combination of the above.
Frankly, its insanity to assume herd immunity at this point in time, especially with uncertainty about length of immune protection from primary and t-cell response.
Its a virus, it writes the rules and we barely have managed to decipher some of them, this article reads like a perverted Mission Accomplished on an aircraft carrier.
Younger males in particular are much less likely to seek treatment for a mild infection.
> What do scientists do in the face of uncertainty on the value of global interventions? Usually, they seek an answer with adequately designed and swiftly implemented clinical studies as has been partly achieved with pharmaceuticals. We consider it is unwise to infer causation based on regional geographical observations as several proponents of masks have done. Spikes in cases can easily refute correlations, compliance with masks and other measures is often variable, and confounders cannot be accounted for in such observational research.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-...
Same with the beaches you photo'd.
People in NY/NJ are NOT hanging out together inside. They're not in schools, not in offices, etc.
So YES, they are being more careful.
All you are effectively saying is that, given the current mitigation measures and given the current level of population immunity, R is less than 1 in these places. But, that's not really a revelation.
What one would expect is likely to be the case is that some areas have had enough exposure that it has a non-zero impact on their current R, as in NY and NJ. This means there may be more buffer to relax mitigation measures without seeing R rise above 1, but it doesn't necessarily mean they are at herd immunity.