It might not be the cheapest, but 4+1 drives is more efficient than 3+1. Currently I have three 8TB drives: 1xWD Red and 2xIronwolfs (wolves?) with one running as parity (SHR). No complaints. It does everything I need it to do. The interface is simple and everything "just works" as anticipated. If/when I run out of space I plan on adding another 2x8TB drives, probably more ironwolves.
I wouldn't go bigger than 8TB as they already take DAYS to add to the array.
Migrated from a 1512. It took probably about 3-4 days to migrate everything. The new box handled it easily. The old one was struggling a bit with rsync. As the default is ssh with it. Once I had to downgraded the encryption then it went a lot faster (from 30MB to 90MB which was close enough to the limit of the cable to not worry).
This year I broke down and bought a Synology (918+). It's not perfect but I'm still a HAPPY happy camper --> I'm at a point in my life where RAID is a means/tool, not a goal / fun project to pour lifetime of hours upon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I have an old TS140 with an i3 that can take 4 HD, has ECC RAM with 4 slots. I'm currently exploring setting it up with Freenas (or Truenas after the merge) based on ZFS. So far it looks pretty good and performant.
For off the shelf NAS, Synology options look good..
I found that for my size (~10TB external), Backblaze went from very cheap personal to very expensive business pricing :-/
I previously had a HP N54L with FreeNAS, modded with extra two extra drives to get 6x4TB and that setup was very simple to do.
Now I moved over to a custom one which is a Fractal Node 804 case, i3 8100T, C246M-WU4 mobo and 32GB ECC DDR4 RAM. It has a SF450W Platinum PSU, and it pulls less than 40W in use - could get it lower with some underclocking. This runs Debian Buster with ZFS on Linux, and it's been rock stable for over half a year now - moving the drives over from my N54L was surprisingly simple. Plex transcoding works fine as well. Definitely recommend it.
I shopped around and waited for sales/price drops and got it all for under £500 (not including drives). I don't the pricing if your're not in the UK, so it may be cheaper elsewhere to do another combination.
As for drives wait for good deals on WD Elements/My Book Desktop External Hard Drive and shuck them. Note, only do this for +8TB drives (these are CMR drives atm) as under that size the drives are SMR which you should avoid like the plague for RAID/ZFS as they have been reported to fail if you ever need to rebuild. So then you're looking at 4x£120 which is another ~£500ish investment.
If you want to save money get a preowned box like the N54L off eBay at ~£100, and spend the money on drives, then stick FreeNas on it and if you're only file-serving the box is good enough.
I think the custom box is a bit overkill but it's got so much room for upgrades, I plan on getting 8x10TB drives in there one day, plus you can run VMs on it as the i3 processor isn't too bad.
Synology, and you should also look for and ONLY buy models which support Btrfs. Silent file corruption is very real.
Personally I am waiting for Qnap's Hero Edition OS, because I just love ZFS.
Other than these two, I am not aware of any other consumer NAS which support either of these file system.
Or may be someday Blackblaze decide to enter NAS market :D