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Comment by nippoo | Hacker News Reader

The (very real [1]) risk is that the Russians could disconnect the Baltic states from IPS/UPS, forcing them to operate autonomously, at a time of high demand and low local power generation. This could rapidly (within seconds) cause a grid-wise blackout which could take days to recover from - you have to do what's called a "black start" [2] to restore service - which is technically quite challenging.

[1] https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/38632048.pdf [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_start

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Importantly, from your first citation:

> The present report gives an insight in the ability of the Baltic States to operate their electricity systems independently of the neighbouring countries. The results show that by 2020 and 2030 the dependency of the Baltic States on the outside generation resources is fairly low, following current electricity system development trends.

Consequently, if one were to desire to disempower Russia and Belarus, you’d increase funding to the Baltic states to allow them a more rapid transition to robust electrical grids (through transmission, generation, and interconnector upgrades). The Baltics could always get more power from Finland and Sweden and disconnect entirely from Russia and Belarus if necessary.

> The Baltics could always get more power from Finland and Sweden and disconnect entirely from Russia and Belarus if necessary.

Estonia has been a net exporter of electricity since 2017. [1] Amusingly one of the export targets is Russia.

Looking at the current live data [2] it looks like Latvia is in a similar situation, although I haven't searched for yearly statistics.

Lithuania is a net importer though, but that's largely due to major restructuring of its electricity system. Specifically because a condition of Lithuania joining the EU was that it has to shut down its nuclear power plants. If those plants were still running then Lithuania would be a big exporter, because the plants were built during Soviet times with the idea of powering a bunch of the neighboring coutries as well. [3][4]

[1] https://majandus24.postimees.ee/6738108/energiasoltumatus-on...

[2] https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/LV

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_energy_in_Lithuania

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignalina_Nuclear_Power_Plant

The EU required Lithuania to shut the nuclear reactor in question (Ignalina) down because it had an inherently flawed design making it unsafe to continue to operate. There is still an opportunity to use storage and renewables to be a power exporter. The renewables will need to be built regardless.

I highly doubt that the Baltic countries will exist in 2030, rather they'll be already annexed by Russia(this will happen around the middle of this decade).

I don't have high hopes in NATO, but I really doubt that would happen

I'm afraid its going this way. Belarus will join Russia this year. Trump will get reelected and throw the Baltics to Russia in exchange of the new nuclear detente.

NATO and the EU are useless - NATO depends on the US, EU is toothless and their biggest military power - France is Russian slut.

The only solution would be to show strength NOW - deploy nuclear weapons to the Baltics and deal with every single fifth columnist there in a brutal, public fashion. Of course this will never ever happen. Annexation is matter of time.

I'm moving away from Tallinn next year, so hopefully this year nothing will happen...just in case I have all my money moved out of the country.

Russia doesn't exist for centuries. Great Russian Empire doesn't exist for century. Russian Federation may not exist in 2030.

This is the most entertaining (and uninformed) statement I've read today. I'd be curious to know what makes you think this is a plausible scenario?

Looking at the map, reading the news, reading history books. Basically summing up 2 and 2 together.

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