For all those people who don't have broadband available, this will be life-changing.
It'll only get better from here, welcome to the future :)
(and remember that perfect is the enemy of good)
For all those people who don't have broadband available, this will be life-changing.
It'll only get better from here, welcome to the future :)
(and remember that perfect is the enemy of good)
Delivering just 10Mbps to 100 million customers is over 900 Tbps. There is absolutely no way a satellite network can clear that kind of downlink bandwidth. And that's just a tiny fraction of the market.
Physical cables/fiber represent several orders of magnitude more capacity and always will. So satellite is great for remote areas or unique situations but absolutely not a substitute for running cables.
Most homes already have a phone line and can support a DSL network... and in some countries a phone line is mandated by law, so the infrastructure already exists.
But, DSL is not nearly as "sexy" as thousands of satellites...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VDSL#:~:text=VDSL%20offers%20s....
It seems VDSL2 can achieve maximum throughput at run lengths under 1000ft from the DSLAM, with maximum performance beginning to degrade after. That sounds sufficient for most of the people currently stuck with slow access right now in the US (more rural areas outside major cities, but not actually remote as-in nearest neighbor is 1 mile away).
Also... surely solving this problem is cheaper than sending thousands of satellites into orbit every few years as they decay.
I would guess that this isn't right, but honestly I don't have the data either. My rough guess would be that only around 5-15% of people have <1000' of copper to their DSLAM, and I from what I've experienced with other technologies the speeds degrade very quickly after the max length, and only even work up to the max length in absolutely ideal scenarios. What I've seen of current copper infrastructure in the U.S. is pretty bad - lots of hand twisted copper lines with the ends exposed and rusting out, for example - that kind of thing would add the equivalent of at least several hundred feet of additional cable, and is very difficult to fix en-masse.
Honestly my gut feeling is that you pretty much have to run new cables to something like 80% of the U.S. to get good Internet service everywhere, and obviously if you're running new cables you should just run fiber. Looking at the cost of that compared to launching satellites - and accounting for the additional benefits of the satellites, like connectivity in extremely remote places and on the ocean - I'm not sure the satellites don't come out ahead.
EDIT TO ADD: A comparison point on the 1000 feet number is that this is in the same ballpark as how close a 5G tower needs to be to get real 5G service to your home or your cell phone. Current 4G towers are nowhere near that dense, and it's going to take huge amounts of money to get them that dense, even in the most densely populated areas.
There are folks with dial-up connections still, unfortunately, and not always because they have no other option. The more technically-inclined people here on HN wanting to work remotely and stream multiple 4k videos at once - they aren't majority of, say, AT&T's customer base. AT&T won't build this out if they think 1 in 100 potential customers will actually upgrade.
This will change over time, as a generation of folks that grew up with technology age and move into more rural areas. Hopefully demand will drive these network upgrades over time, and make it make financial sense to run new fiber in rural areas.
This could even be expedited with some sort of National Infrastructure Bill to fund it today, subsidized by tax payers since the benefits are ultimately so great.
I still think that's ultimately the better (and long term, cheaper) option verse thousands of satellites being launched every few years.
My take on the situation is that what most people want is more Internet for the same or less money. That means the only way to get infrastructure improvements is with competition. If AT&T did a bunch of upgrades and then gave their customers better service for the same price their customers would take it, but the customers aren't going to pay more than they're paying now and they're only going to leave if there's something better.
Also many of the places I have been looking at moving to don't even have POTS lines. This would fill the gap where POTS and VDSL is not available. I would certainly use VDSL if that were an option and use Starlink as a fallback in a very remote area.
Where are you, if you don't mind telling. I had thought, perhaps incorrectly, that in the US it was required by law to have POTS lines run to all homes - which led to it being installed during construction.
> The universal landline requirement has been repealed in Florida, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin. There, new homeowners have no guarantee that they could order phone service at affordable rates, consumer advocates say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/landline-rul...
The language, however, of "guaranteed access to an affordable line" does seem to imply a TELCO will have to run a line to your property at your request? Without fees (since that wouldn't be affordable)?
Perhaps, in practice, this resulted in all new construction having lines run since that was cheaper than doing it ad-hoc upon demand.
> I suppose we would need a land developer here to chime in.
Yes, hopefully someone out there knows more! Honestly curious now, since I had always assumed this was how it was.
I strongly disagree with CCP's policies here, but that's not for us to decide.
But I mean once a Chinese citizen gets their hands on the equipment, I'm not sure how China would stop them. I suppose they could have roving bands of listening posts looking for the uplink signals.
I'm sure someone could figure out a way to take payments for them. Many rich Chinese citizens already have bank accounts outside of China.
Regarding an American traveling to China - I think you're still beholden to the host country's laws, no? You can't break their local laws just because you're from out of town.
Not to mention the punitive actions CCP could take against Tesla (as they try to build out a business there) to put pressure on SpaceX to stop allowing Starlink access in China. That wouldn't be fair either, but Musk is CEO of both organizations and I'm not sure the CCP would distinguish them separately.
I think this is pretty likely.
In the US the FCC has a whole set of systems designed to locate interference sources [1], and I've heard stories that they're extremely good at it. They even have a whole facility in Maryland dedicated to satellite monitoring!
[1] https://www.fcc.gov/over-air-spectrum-observation-capabiliti...
People earning an equivalent of a couple USD a day, or nothing at all, aren't going to be able to afford to pay some US corporation for fast internet.
Fast internet probably isn't even a concern in wartorn countries, honestly.
Let's be honest - Starlink is almost exclusively going to be used by people living in rural areas within developed nations.
Why would the US Government (aka. Taxpayers) pay for internet use in other nations?
We already have expensive problems domestically that people would rather spend that coin on.
You drop access to the internet as whole in places where the internet is suppressed or non-existent and the populace learns just how bad they have things then they might revolt on their own.
I wouldn't say I 100% advocate for the idea but thats the thought process behind it.
You would also have to deal with the real possibility that those countries would simply shoot down any planes observed dropping Starlink base stations.
The Human Rights Foundation even collects flash drives to load them up with content to smuggle into North Korea: https://flashdrivesforfreedom.org
For a government to do this? How could that not lead to an armed conflict?
I would very much like to see a headline of a neutral nation airdropping supplies into a country engaged in war without getting dragged into the conflict. I'm not aware of that having occurred in the past 4 decades.
You're not wrong, information/propaganda warfare is aggressive. Sometimes it makes more strategic sense then open warfare, and sometimes states can get away with it when they can't get away with open warfare.
We don't drop satellite modems into war torn countries now, and we're not going to start doing that just because Elon Musk needs to check off one of his PR claims.
And at $2000/pop, they're at least as expensive as the equipment we're currently not randomly dropping around the globe because of the expense.
I live in the suburbs of Paris and the length of the phone line is still too long for VDSL2 (it's only available for distance less than 1 km) so I am not sure how feassible that is in rural areas.
Starlink is susceptible to cloud cover, rainstorms, lightning and other things that would interfere with signal quality (or render it unusable for periods of time).
Seems buried lines (either POTS for DSL, Coax for Cable, or Fiber) is the best solution. We just need to figure out how to incentivize it being built.
Our DSL and cable options were limited, Comcast said they offered cable, but when they got to the line near the house, the signal was so poor they were unable to make it work without 50k in labor.
Then ATT came with DSL, the connection has routine outages for hours at a time. There is a technician servicing the DSLAM pretty much every week, there is literally no way ATT makes money where I used to live. Everyone owns 20+ acres, there's basically 10 homes in 1 square mile. And then the Hurricanes... Every 4 years all of the lines get blown down and it takes ATT 1-2 months to get it back online... There is way too many advantages for satellite in rural areas.
If I had to guess, there was over 200 outages (anything over 10 minutes IMO is an outage) in the 6 years I lived there.
Digging cables is what's expensive. You can use telephone poles for fiber too, but it exposes it to more outages. You can secure the lines with steel cables but that ads cost, and if you are deploying to poles then you were looking for going cheap.
Helps that pesky Huwawei/5G problem the US keeps complaining about as well.
10 MHz wide channel with 256-QAM can push 100 Mbps down.
At any rate, it's mostly about the bandwidth each satellite has to route. I don't know what the likely number of subscribers for any one LEO sattelite will be? Will it really be on the order of 100 million notalso served by 4g cellular, dsl and other broadband?
Say for new York state its a large area and population total but the area where you might want/prefer satellite service isn't very densely populated?
Edit: Even further, if they're launching 12000 of these couldn't that be a CDN network itself?
My understanding is Cloudflare's service works this way. I believe this would be a good partnership between both companies.
I'm guessing the other approach is similar to Netflix's open connect. Where Netflix is given the option to run what they normally run on their open connect boxes but in a virtualized environment on the satellites themselves.
Now, I know that wouldn't seem all that practical if the service was seen as something anyone could sign up and buy because it isn't like these satellites are the same as EC2 instances and it isn't easy to just rack a new one but my gut feeling is that a very tiny portion of content is a substantial amount of bandwidth.
There is absolutely no way a satellite network can clear that kind of downlink bandwidth.
Evergreen comment. Encoding and compression software and hardware continue to improve. The only constant in technology is change. Will we be able to do this sort of bandwith to LEO eventually? Yes. Can we do it this very moment? No one has tried.What does that have to do with bandwidth ?
I’d you can make 10Mb suddenly only require 900k of actual raw bandwidth by say adding a fpga or something then you can increase throughout to the users.
Going beyond that point requires the laws of physics (more precisely, the laws of information theory) to change, and that's not going to happen.
While change is constant, this isn't an argument that any change you can imagine is physically realizable.
Fiber is here to stay for a very long time precisely because it starts out with such massive fundamental physical advantages. It's also a mistake to assume innovation only benefits one alternative. We're still learning how to make and run fiber cheaper too.
Between one transmitter and receiver. Starlink is designed to cheat Shannon by utilizing SDMA on a truly massive scale. Every antenna in the system, both on the satellites and on the ground stations, is a large phased-array antenna, capable of simultaneously emitting different signals on the same wavelength in different directions, and capable of discriminating between multiple different signals on the same wavelength that come from different directions.
This is how Starlink intends to push so much throughput over just ~50 GHz of bandwidth. Not by pushing more bits per hz per link, but by filling the sky with hundreds of simultaneously visible satellites, and having each of them to all use all of the available spectrum at the same time on every link between any of them and any of the ground stations.
Elon has been very explicit about starlink never being competitive vs telcos in urban areas.
And independent people have done the math too. The system geometry maxes out at less than a single fiber: http://www.mit.edu/~portillo/files/Comparison-LEO-IAC-2018-s...
The beam sizes are in the FCC filings, and they will be able to fully re-use the frequencies for ground stations that are >20km apart. (Not with the same satellite, you want adjacent beam spots on the ground to come from different satellites, but with literally hundreds above you at any time, that's not a problem.) Availability of bandwidth does not really limit them until the satellite counts are up to really hilarious numbers.
The aggregate throughput numbers in the paper you linked are correct, for the initial FCC filing. Since then they have multiplied the size of the constellation by ~7 and the throughput per satellite by ~3 (for 2.0 satellites). (ISL's are still missing, though.)
But these would apply to both wired and wireless, no?
Even in software at L3-7 the encoding tech is probably same of course, however protocols L0-2 is very medium dependent. The loss , noise, signal strength patterns all change depending on the medium so does
Even at L4 and above UDP based stacks benefit in wireless compared TCP based transport, if your application can handle it of course. The next gen HTTP is getting designed around UDP in some part to reflect the changing way people access the internet , a lot more traffic is mobile and wireless today so designing around wireless makes sense.
Personally even as app developer who works only with L7(HTTP) and L6 (SDP) I have specifically developed non trivial optimizations, workflows and APIs for mobile clients which were not needed or used by web clients due to different connection parameters of wired/ WiFi as opposed to wireless 2G/3G .
So yes there is lot of difference and most people working at any layer cannot ignore the medium.
50 Gbps * 12000 satellites is 600 Tbps.
Most of those satellites will be over the middle of nowhere at any given time. But those customers don't use 10Mbps 24/7 either.
Oct 2019: "SpaceX submits paperwork for 30,000 more Starlink satellites"
https://spacenews.com/spacex-submits-paperwork-for-30000-mor...
However over 40,000 satellites that’s just 22.5 gps per sat , quite achievable
The people building this have obviously done the math and have a solution which they're implementing while you're busy saying that it can't be done :)
It's kinda funny because cloudy cover are a smaller portion of signal loss at GEO, (most loss is due to distance), but it affects that signal quite a bit once satellites are tweaked to get signal to Earth. Most GEO satellites try to have something like 95+% uptime due to average cloudy days in an area, which means they account for those really bad days where the clouds are just too thick. They use weather stats to project how much cloud cover each region will get so they can build bigger beams for that area.
In the past those beams would cover large areas (Like the entire USA). Now they're getting smaller (State Sized) so they can tweak how much signal could go to say Washington vs. Idaho. They're always trying to make this stuff better. But those newer sats at GEO cost 300+ million dollars per sat and are expected to last 20+ years. So it'll be a while before this new generation of GEO sat is out there.
The workaround would be. More signal power at the satellite (costly), or you as a consumer get a bigger/more powerful receiving antenna.
People keep comparing Starlink to their ideal non-rural internet connection. That's not what it needs to compete with.