FUD is already spreading among the gullible about the coming vaccines, and I wish I was confident that it'll be a negligible percentage who believe the fake news
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/bill-gates-denies-conspiracy...
(I love the counter optimism that if we succeed with a coronavirus vaccine we have a likelihood to vaccinate against nearly a third of the common cold and it can join the flu as something if we'd all annually vaccinate would trouble us a lot less. But pessimism worries that is a big if.)
I want to believe in a November miracle, but pessimism says to curb our enthusiasm (greatly). (Also, it is probably mostly a "coincidence" Dr. Fauci's job currently requires him to say everything will be better by November because of pressure from a certain election cycle.)
There seems to be already about 6 large scale tests in progress in the world (ie. after lab/animal/small group), that's a good sign.
Anyway, I don't see much reason for Dr. Fauci to make such kind of statement if it was still really years away.
The tests will tell where we are, we'll see in a month or two.
I pointed this out two comments up, but the coronavirus family is common enough that something like 1/3 of the causes of the Common Cold is a coronavirus (the rest IIRC are a different family known as rhinoviruses). We've never managed a Common Cold vaccine or vaccines despite something like a century of work (at least as long as we've been fighting annual flu season with flu vaccines). In the immediate past couple of decades we've seen an increasing number of deadly coronaviruses: the first SARS virus (this being the second), the MERS virus, basically several of the things in the last few years people have been referring to by possibly misnomers like "avian flu" and "swine flu" have been in this family and so forth. So far we've not been successful in creating a vaccine for any of those. No coronavirus in human history has a vaccine, and there is a lot of history with the family (contrary to whatever racist and/or "animal jumping" theories people have that this is something very radically new; it's a "very uncommon cold").
On the hopeful side, Science often builds strongly on failure, and so it could be that we are perfectly set up for a breakthrough from all of this history of vaccine failure. (And again, I pointed out two comments above the hopeful optimism that a coronavirus vaccine puts us on a wonderful path to possible a common cold vaccine. That could be amazing for future humanity.)
Just that history so far with this entire family/category of viruses doesn't give us a lot of room for hope right now.
I don't know if that is true. Maybe just a lie to make the public believe it is safe.
As far as my understanding for clinical trials goes, we can still have the exact same tests with the exact same criteria and quality but still speed up the overall process. Simply by eliminating the default waterfall and accepting higher financial risk. (Also higher medical risk, but only within the trials, not for the end-product).
Usually, one would run the various trials strictly in order:
trial_stage = 0;
while (trial_stage < 4)
execute(trial_stage)
if (evaluate(trial_stage) == success)
trial_stage++
do
Theses no way there will be a vaccine pushed out before late 2021. That's an optimistic start
Maybe, maybe high risk workers might start larger rollouts mid next year. But even if it's true their vaccine might not even be the one you might be offered.
Being high risk workers you'll also know little since you won't be able to sort danger between the vaccine and their work.
At your safety level you are asking for late 2022 would be an early option. But then the risk from C19 might lower, so you'll have to reassess then.
I doubt most people will get the vaccine.
By now the vaccine has clearly shifted in purpose from a medical one to a primarily psychological one. For people who are wedded to lockdowns and can't admit how disastrous they are, a vaccine is a face-saving exit criteria. It comes with the bonus of more top-down control of the population too!
VE Day was two and a half decades after the Spanish Flu pandemic.