SpaceX Falcon Heavy announced: 53 metric tons to low earth orbit
spacex.com
spacex.com
I now have hope for our future.
This has proven to be a mistake for two main reasons: Firstly, everyone expects huge discounts (since all their other enterprise contracts give them big discounts off of the list price). Trying to explain that we're already the cheapest option they're looking at does help. They all want more off. Secondly I think we're losing opportunities because we aren't making people call us. Those phone calls are missed opportunities for us to really pitch our advantages for their specific situation and needs better than our website ever could.
I feel like it is, but maybe not - I have friends who still like to walk into their bank to deposit a big check...
That can be an advantage - you end up spending far less than your competition on each sale.
I said it could be turned into an advantage ;-)
That way you give people a ballpark price (while they're doing preliminary research), give people a real motivation to call, and still give yourself wriggle room.
I like companies who list pricing and generally avoid enquiring otherwise, probably because of two reasons; [1] embarrassed if it's going to be way over my budget, [2] may just be doing early research and don't want a sales guy following me up every week afterwards.
If that is true for others also, you could easily add wording/checkbox to opt-out of follow-ups or outline that people just running early budgets are welcome to call too.
But seriously, there are cases in which both hiding and flaunting prices make sense. If you believe cost is a competitive advantage and your competition is unable to match it, it makes sense to flaunt it. When one or both of those things aren't true, it makes sense to hide them, give quotes, etc.
It is a message to the people who control budgets to send work their way
Jeff Bezos - From Amazon.com to Blue Origin
Richard Branson - From Virgin Records to Virgin Galactic
Robert Bigelow - From Budget Suites to Bigelow Aerospace
Elon Musk - From PayPal to SpaceX
I'm hoping that this is just the beginning of a trend of successful businesspeople investing in humanities' future in space.
Here is his Wikipedia profile:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Branson
Here is the Wikipedia page for his space tourism company:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic
Also worthy of a mention is Mark Shuttleworth, who was the world's second space tourist (and also the founder of the Ubuntu Foundation):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_tourism#List_of_flown_spa...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bigelow
His space station company:
Of course, that wouldn't be acceptable for human cargo.
[1] http://www.aiaa.org/aerospace/images/articleimages/pdf/AA_Ja... [2] http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2010/July/Pag...
http://news.discovery.com/space/will-a-commercial-flight-be-...
And shipping cargo to Mars doesn't need to be very expensive if you are patient - you send the cargo towards a low-perihelion trajectory and deploy a solar sail closest to the Sun. It may take a good couple years for the shipment to get to Mars, but the delta-V on the way up will be free. If you send the shipments well ahead of the landing crews, they'll have lots of toys when they arrive.
But I agree with the SpaceX folks. Nuclear is the way to go if we are to even go back to the Moon.
That, and the living quarters. If it's going to take a couple months to put stuff together and test, you don't want to be living out of an Apollo-sized capsule.
It's not possible to launch a 3720 ton ship to Mars from the surface in one shot, it has to be assembled in space from parts and fuel shipped up in multiple launches.
But now that we are having to have this talk, personally I think multiple ships assembled are still the way to go. A one-shot XX launch means not enough weight for proper radiation shielding, and enough food and spare parts to make it all the way there is a problem, and enough space to prevent the astronauts from killing each other is also an issue. We still have to have enough fuel to get there and land even if there is a bunch of fuel on site waiting in pods both in orbit and on the surface. The Dragon capsule is not really big enough to prevent mission failure from mass homicide en route, something considerable larger, and larger than the XX can lift in one go with fuel and food and water is needed to avoid this.
The space assembly step doesn't have to be something done in a giant station over a period of months. It can be send 4 modules up one after another, dock them together and go. We assembled two space ships together en route to Luna using this method on the Apollo mission. Adding a few more modules isn't a big deal, if we could assemble (not build from scratch) stuff in space 40 years ago, we can do it again now.
Probably the biggest impediment to lowering launch prices over that time period was the existence of the Shuttle. It was sold with promises of capabilities (especially in terms of flight rate) that it would never have, and that disrupted a lot of other launch vehicle development at the time. Worse yet, it kept billions per year of NASA funds locked up maintaining jobs for the standing army of Shuttle engineers instead of being spent on improving launch systems.
The problem is that the cost of building a Falcon 9 is still similar to the cost of building a 747, and you throw it away after one flight. So if you could recover and re-use the booster rocket then you'd be looking at a serious cost reduction.
This was the logic behind the space shuttle. But unfortunately, they have to survive to high stresses that inspecting and repairing them between launches costs more than building a simpler disposable launch vehicles.
I honestly believe that as long as we will be using rockets, the best cost savings will not come from reuse, but from increasing the launch volumes to the point where launch vehicles stop being hand-built boutique items and start being mass-produced commodities.
This announcement gives me hope that this might happen during my lifetime.
It's a good case study in the downfalls of a waterfall type process and of committing too early to a system before it's true character is known.
I'm not sure that economies of scale can get you that far when you're talking something as complicated as a rocket. How many jet engines does Rolls Royce make every year? Rolls-Royce and GE make many hundreds (thousands?) of jet engines per year, but they still cost a crapload of money each.
You might be right, maybe fully-recoverable rockets aren't possible. On the other hand, being personally unqualified to judge, if I've got some random piscinymous internet commenter telling me that it's not possible on one hand, and Elon Musk telling me that it is possible on the other, I'm more inclined to believe the dude who owns a rocket company.
The fuel requirements to decelerate are much lower than the requirements to reach orbit, for multiple reasons. You aren't fighting against gravity, your weight is greatly reduced (having burnt the fuel to get to orbit), and you also don't need to fully decelerate, only decelerate sufficiently to avoid burn-up upon reentry.
The original comment said that fuel was very cheap, and the primary expense was constructing the launch vehicle. Suppose it required five times as much fuel to be able to launch a rocket with sufficient additional fuel to be able to decelerate out of orbit. Wouldn't this still be much more economical if it meant the ability to easily reuse the launch vehicle after reentry?
We're used to electronics getting cheaper as we find ways to make smaller and faster chips. We get change driven by Moore's law.
Getting to orbit is governed by simple lifting against gravity, and that hasn't changed at all. ( It's still 9.8 m/s^2 ) A Falcon rocket looks a lot like a Saturn rocket, so desipite a lot of ideas, a radically different and better design hasn't been commericialised yet.
The figures quoted on the page work out to $1,070 per lb to LEO. That's less than $200k to lift the mass of a 180lb human.
All told, I reckon 1000Kg of spacecraft deadweight plus 200-250Kg of supplies per astronaut is as low as you're going to get. So once you add your notional 85Kg astronaut, you're talking about 1500Kg at US $2300/Kg, or around US $4M per person for a ride into orbit. If you're really slick you might be able to shave that by 50%. 90%? I don't think so.
Done right, this will cut the cost of space tourism by nearly an order of magnitude and will open up the possibility of the private sector actually being able to send folks to do stuff in orbit -- like fix or upgrade comsats. But it's not a magic wand and it's not going to reduce the cost per person to orbit to the rough order of a year's salary for an engineer.
Before anyone tries to estimate how much space tourism will cost, remember that the actual weight of humans will make up a tiny fraction of the total weight of any orbiting hotel. Probably need to multiply by an order of magnitude or two.
But, longer term, consider what happens if/when there is existing infrastructure in LEO and highly productive and profitable work for an individual to do there. The cost of actually getting to LEO will be a relatively minor relocation cost, even at these numbers.
What productive work is there to do in LEO? I can hardly think of any, and NASA was scrapping the bottom of the barrel looking for worthwhile science to do on the international space station.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2009/01/musk-ambition-spacex-...
then we can start looking at paying ten times less.
No, it's $80-$125 million to lift 650 humans, packed like intermodal containers in stacks roughly 20 bodies high. Which technically amortizes to ~$150k/sardine, but I don't think this is meaningful!
Out of curiosity, is there a plan by any government to clean up the ever increasing mess of space junk in LEO ?
http://media.economist.com/images/images-magazine/2010/34/ST...
Aside from the giant spike when China decided to blow up a satellite, it seemed to be leveling out...
Which ironically would make the Falcon Heavy the best choice for launching a lot of the most secretive NRO payloads (due to bloated satellite size). For servicing the commercial satellite market it's likely that a lot of launches would be 2 or 3 comm-sats at once.
The most perplexing thing about the usage here is that at the size used the font isn't even that interesting. I would have just stuck with Helvetica bold and called it close enough if that's all they wanted.
Probably explains why they're not too into hiring web developers...
I was recently watching a documentary about the early jet era and I remember being amazed at the innovation showed by those at De Havilland, Boeing, DC and thinking 'this would never happen again, everything is too expensive' - and here we have a private company getting us into space at 20% of the cost.
They have a number of government contracts now, in the value of billions of dollars. They have only raised $125M total, so they may not need to raise much in an IPO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energia could lift up to 100 tons to LEO in the tested configuration and up to 200 tons in Hercules configuration (which never tested though).
https://twitter.com/spacexer/status/55291286919454720
> Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are designed to meet all published NASA standards to carry crew.
(disclaimer: you must weigh less than 53 metric tons)
Damnit!
If it had been a country doing it instead of SpaceX they probably would have already put a human into orbit in a Dragon capsule.
(they don't want to kill anyone ever, of course, but an early death would be an inordinately huge blow to their potential success in the market)
SpaceX has done an excellent job of coming up with cool-sounding names for everything they do, second only to US muscle car manufacturers of the 1960s. Falcon! Merlin! Draco! They even skipped straight from Falcon 1 to Falcon 9 because the numbers in between just don't sound nearly as cool.
But "heavy"? Sure, it's descriptive, but it's boring. Falcon X would be much better. Or Super-Falcon. Or ThunderCougarFalconBird...
It also puzzles me why they're "announcing" this, since a heavy lift version of the Falcon 9 has been planned since day one.
You'd think so, and yet SpaceX has always done such a good job of making things sound cool.
As Doc Brown says, if you're going to build a time machine out of a car you might as well give it some style. And if you're going to build a huge fricking rocket that goes to space you might as well give it a cool name.