Lukashenko BTW suspects Russia is behind this, which it very well might be.
Nope. The story with "Russian mercenaries" is clearly aimed at creating a "besieged fortress" image to convince citizens that country needs a "strong leader" and stability. Before every election there is some kind of an external threat, which gets forgotten soon afterwards. Previously it was the West, now it's Russia.
Russia is less skillful at inducing and controlling street protests, so it usually sees it as an attempt by West to topple current government and install a more dependent one. And since none of the opposition candidates are visibly more pro-Russian than Lukashenko (which is a "known evil" for the Russian government), it makes scenario of Russia inducing those protests even less likely. I bet that in the following days Russia will accept the election results and will not condone suppression of protests too much,
Sure. Belarussians can be spurred into action just like anybody else. A few provocations is all it takes.
> Most of my friends are against
No doubt. Shit I (and most of my friends) were "against" Putin in Russia. I always vote for whatever is the least embarrassing clown that he allows to run against himself. Note also that I think Putin is the best Russian leader in almost a hundred years - that's how low the bar has been before him. Be that as it may, I think he's corrupt as fuck, and I don't think he's the best Russia has to offer. _Most_ of the people in Russia, however, vote for him. Even if he didn't rig the elections, he'd win, just not with such an overwhelming margin.
I very strongly suspect the same is the case in Belarus - cities vote only mostly for Lukashenko, rural areas vote _overwhelmingly_ for Lukashenko, poor people vote as they're told by (government controlled) mass media.
Having 10-15% of people who don't like him doesn't matter a whole lot as long as he keeps control of the national security apparatus, and as long as Putin doesn't want him gone. If Putin wants him gone, though, shit could turn real ugly real quick, and you wouldn't even know why.
Don't get me wrong, I did not say it was "true". I merely said that this is what Lukashenko thinks. I also think it's somewhat plausible that Putin would use COVID19 crisis for geopolitical maneuvers.
That's not true this time. It was like that before, now the candidate from opposition, Tihanouskaya, gained about 79% on at least 85 polling stations officially! The situation is different today, Lukashenko has 10-15% incl. army and police forces.
Voting committees were afraid to publish protocols in front of people yesterday night and were running and escorted by police away from polling stations in most cities in Belarus, no results were published on such stations. 33 cities had protests yesterday, there were no leaders, it was all decentralized, nobody expected so many hot spots and so many people. Today internal repression machinery was rerouted to regions, to "rural" regions, as you say.
He's fucked.
He declared victory with nearly 80% of the "vote".
Russia wants to "teach" Lukashenko some lessons, but "Maidan" is a curse word for Putin, probably he is having nightmares because we can have the same situation in Russia in 2024.
The level of pressure Putin put on Lukashenko was unbelievable. The ruse was quite transparent: create the Union and put Putin on the throne. L. stood strong and made Putin opt for plan B (constitutional amendments which amounted to a coup).
The measures taken to force Lukashenko's hand were cutting off oil supply (heh, the United States did the same to Japan pre-WWII), stopping imports of Belarusian goods, setting up disadvantageous tax regimes. Ex-ambassador to Belarus Babich was openly insulting Lukashenko, Belarus and after being booted from Minsk was put in charge of anti-Belarusian economic warfare in the Ministry of Economy in Russia.
Gazprom-sponsored candidate (Babariko (sp?)) couldn't make it to the polls, so the decision was made to up the ante.
Let me be clear - I'm not alone - there are many thousands of Lukashenko admirers here in Russia, just yesterday saw a middle-aged man in a mall with a T-shirt and a slogan "he doesn't steal" next to "bat'ka"'s portrait. It would do Russia a lot of good to have Lukashenko in power instead of Putin. Lukashenko's COVID response didn't make much sense, though.