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Comment by daenz | Hacker News Reader

Anyone else suspect we are going to see a massive deflation of cities?

Not really, cities offer public transportation and a lot of enjoyable things to do. They were a thing before large corporations were seated there.

most people move to cities for work, not for restaurants and things to do. Not all, but most.

That's the reason they move there but may not be the reason they stay there. Once you change something in your life that allows you to take advantage of new opportunities, the latter may become the reason to support the change more than whatever initial reason you had.

Okay, but then what would be the incentive for the people who are already there to leave?

Life reasons I suppose

Depends on the city. Portland is a good example of a city with an anemic economy that people seem to be drawn to.

I mean, even Philly (where I live) has seen somewhat of a resurgence (especially relative to the MSA at large), despite a lot of jobs being outside the city.

I think we'll see the hypergrowth of the tech hubs drop off. I think cities more broadly might slow growth as millennials age into parenthood and that might be accelerated by recent events making cities more broadly seem less welcoming.

But I'm not sure that jobs will be the main driver here.

This isn't true at all. These tech companies opened offices in cities because thats where young talent wanted to/was living.

I've seen people in the Seattle area and SF area who want to live in cities so badly that they reverse commute out of the city to their offices (Seattle to Redmond for MS, SF to Menlo Park or Mountain View for FB and Goog). These companies have a large group of private buses that handle this commute so it's common enough in those groups that there is evidence people move to the cities for things besides work.

> a lot of enjoyable things to do

That's the thing though. For the next $few years, they offer nothing but a higher chance of infection. All enjoyable things are closed

Unless you live in the US (which I do, for the record), COVID is not going to be ravaging the countryside for years to come.

It seems implausible that most entertainment will be closed for years to come.

I live in Toronto and we are already in stage 3 of reopening. Restaurants have allowed indoor dining and gyms have started to reopen. Movie theatres are also open.

Streets are bustling and patios are pretty full again.

I think this whole thing is overblown and we will return to normal sooner than people think.

cost of living in cities has been rising at an insane rate over the last decade, a large part of it is tech salaries. I know a ton of software engineers who only live in cities b/c that's where the jobs are. Places outside of cities also offer a lot of (different) enjoyable things to do.

Presumably big companies moving jobs away from cities will have some impact.

San Francisco had just as many houses before tech moved in, the only thing tech did was make housing more expensive

Both "cities will thin out because of covid" and "cities will remain the same despite covid" are pretty reductionist of much larger and more complicated trends I'm sure.

I'm aware I reduced the two sides in summarizing them above haha.

>San Francisco had just as many houses before tech moved in

That's the problem, no?

This. Basic supply/demand problem. For those in control of that scare resource (Bay Area housing close to employers/amenities), that constraint is pure profit.

Basically yes and insane NIMBY regulations have kept the city from reducing the cost of living via more open housing regulations and support for multiunit housing and ridiculous amounts of permitting.

A large part is an imbalance of housing production vs job creation.

Wouldn't that mean living in cities will get cheaper? People that didn't want to live in the city but had to for work will move out, and people that wanted to live in the city but couldn't because it was too expensive will move in. Hopefully a cheaper equilibrium in cities will happen because of all this.

This is why I'm in a suburb working from home. I do not want to ever not be near a city with things to do. I grew up in a very rural area and I hated it. There is a nostalgia uptick every now for the simple life now and then and I remember how terrible it was to be around uneducated rednecks and push it from my mind.

Uneducated rednecks are a bit better than educated rednecks. At least they have an excuse.

I love educated rednecks.

Maybe I misunderstand what redneck means in this context?

There is only one meaning of the term, at least nowadays. I think parent was sarcastic because part of definition of "redneck" is "uneducated", at least per OED.

Redneck means working class. Hence the red neck; the neck is sunburned from working outside

It's a good theory, etymologically. But do check your favorite dictionary about the actual definition of the word.

completely agree

Exactly. Companies came to cities because thats where talent wanted to live. Not the other way around.

When covid is done, or effectively done, we'll be the same fundamental society we were before it started.

This bubble of tech workers aside, most people don't want to sit at home all day. I like going somewhere to work where I can socialize a little or a lot on a given day, depending on my mood. Communicate with people in person when I don't want to deal with the online trade-offs. Go to lunch with people. Leave my work at work rather than have it invade my personal space.

I don't think covid has turned me into a minority on that. I'm dealing with this subsistence level of contact because I have to, but when this is over the companies that can offer me a comfortable work space will have a recruiting advantage over the ones that can't. I'll still favor being in my city.

Massive? No. For one thing I don't think enough companies will buy into the work from home forever. Although, those that want to work from home will most likely move from the cities, as it almost requires extra space. Plus there are other advantages to cities... Nightlife, variety of eateries, multitude of entertainment options. People. Shopping.

People can rent co-working spaces in cities which is probably cheaper than getting an extra bedroom. That's an expense that some companies have reimbursed in the past. Although with everyone working from home, I'm not sure how equitable offering that as benefit would be viewed as.

I work live in Bangalore (India) where most IT companies are. I could go back to my village and save money and work remote. it's just good and easy on paper but very hard. A city like Bangalore offers a heck lot of things starting from the Tech community / vibe, weekend meetups (after Corona hopefully), Uber, Next day Amazon delivery, Online food deliveries, Work/Job Market, Side gigs opportunities.

I might be interested to moving to a nicer city probably stay slightly away from the expensive side but moving completely away from City is difficult for a lot of families who have enjoyed that life and its perks.

Massive, no. Maybe a modest deflation.

Will probably see a substantial rebalancing between metros though, with people fleeing super expensive ones to cheaper ones.

There will be movement, but my sense is it won't be massive. People move to cities for the network effect -- there's an energy you get from being close to other people who are doing interesting things. It affects its inhabitants even outside of work. It's addictive.

People who move to cities just for work and who are on the edge may elect to move out.

But I was born in a city, grew up in the suburbs, lived in small university towns and now I'm in a big city again. I think I'll always want to live in a city -- or at the very least in any outlying cosmopolitan areas with easy access to the city core. COL be damned -- I'll make it happen, even if I have to live in a smaller space.

Nope. I love the city life. I'm not here only because of my job.

Personally happy non city dweller and for real estate purposes hoping what your saying is true.

For me not fan of city dwelling and even more now with cities having the highest cases of Covid, at times there are not so peaceful protests and it's more expensive to live in close proximity to others.

If self driving cars ever actually work, coupled with ubiquitous remote work, it seems to me that the major disincentives for living far away from the urban center are mostly gone.

If you can sleep or working during your two hour automated commute, it would be a game changer.

Still a waste of time.

No matter how much easier doing unnecessary work is, it still doesn't make sense.

Agreed. If I could have a car pick me up and take me to work then I would be a bit more friendly to the idea. The commute here is brutal.

You can already do that. It's called trains and buses, lol.

Sitting in an enclosed space for 3 hours is still sitting in an enclosed space for 3 hours.

Buses and trains are able to privately transport on arbitrary point to point journeys now? Also an enclosed space alone seems more attractive in a psot-COVID world.

I wouldn't extrapolate what tech companies are doing across the entire economy. A slowing or stopping of growth in cities? Sure. Massive deflation? Tech workers make up a single digit percent of the population.

Well any office worker can work from home not just tech companies' office workers.

Not really but i d go long on the RV business.

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