yet most of the discoveries of the past, DNA, semiconductors, relativity have nothing to do with prior information being wrong,
just that prior knowledge was incomplete or insufficiently accurate.
The predictions that best satisfy my intuition's classifier (not exactly a scientific process) are the ones that suggest an expanding of our current knowledge through the discovery of some new, fundamental thing—like a new piece of quantum mechanics, a new systems-level understanding of neural activity, new life forms that evolve our models of life, etc.
New models imply falsification or rejection of prior models.
Semiconductors were more an emergent materials-properties discovery, though with analogues in earlier systems (diodes, vacuum tubes, physical gates and valves, etc.). Not so much a model as a discovered behaviour.