Australia fast-tracks plan to send solar power to Singapore
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
If the price estimate is correct, Singapore would be crazy not to do it. The only issue I see is the risk of cable cuts and future geopolitical changes.
Unfortunately, within Australia, coal is currently so cheap that even low-cost solar can't really compete.
That's only true for existing power stations. For new coal stations there is no way to make them competitive with large scale solar or wind.
The levelized cost of power from new coal plants is calculated to be between $76 per megawatt hour and $205.60 per megawatt hour depending on black vs brown coal, if you include a risk premium on financing and whose estimates you believe.
In 2017 the Victorian government signed a 12 year deal for $50 to $60 per megawatt hour for a wind farm, and the new Golden Plains wind farm will be under $50/MWh.
Adding storage costs a bit more: between $83.40 and $129.30 per MW/h for pumped hydro storage, or $138/MWh for batteries.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-ch...
The solar array and battery storage (all of which can be recycled today with existing recycling techniques) will be built on time, begin generating on time, and will generate no nuclear waste nor require fuel (besides sunlight) during its operating lifetime. It takes over 10 years to build a VVER-1200 reactor [1] (any fission reactor, really), if you can even get the reactor to the finish line.
[1] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-First-VVER-1200-reacto...
Very important point, especially when we're considering costs.
What are the lifetime costs associated with storing the spent fuel? In practice, the only way to get reactors built, is for the public to 100% subsidize the long term consequences.
Steady on, that is a prediction for a project where data is light. The most comparable experience Australia has to this stuff is the Basslink which broke in 2015-16 and triggered a major energy crisis in Tasmania. And I think technically means that 50% of Australia's major undersea cables have been involved in an energy crisis.
This is a major project. It is not yet clear it will be delivered on time and on budget. It is very a very exciting project nonetheless.
Could this project be late? Of course. "Nuclear generator late and over budget"? No.
You've got no data this one. It has never been done before and even the people directly involved in the project can't be sure what surprises may or may not be in store as they push the boundaries of engineering practice.
> Could this project be late? Of course. "Nuclear generator late and over budget"? No.
This is bald-faced fabrication. I've never been confronted with quite so blatant a guess presented as a confident fact.
Even arguing that "nuclear projects can't be completed to plan" is in itself a bit much - planning standards can change. Bad planning isn't a property of nuclear electricity and good planning isn't a property of undersea cables.
This could easily be $50 billion down the drain and the project is still never completed. The risk is there.
I've reached out to an academic with numerous papers authored on the topic of HVDC submarine cables, and inquired as to the feasibility and challenges a 3700km HVDC submarine link might face (to provide a comparison to those faced by the construction of nuclear generators). I'll report back with my findings.
Nuclear, on the other hand, has a negative pricing curve. It gets increasingly more expensive with the passing of time. The only solution are completely new ideas, that to be fair are being researched and a lot of money is invested in them, but nothing has made it to scalable production yet.
So once you do that it goes from $1/watt to more like $4.50/watt. And it starts to look about the same as nuclear if in fact you can spend $5b and you get 1GW.
One nice thing about nuclear is that it's super steady 1GW 24/7 vs the solar needs to have battery storage too, and those batteries aren't free.
Given that solar's cost trend has been going ever cheaper and nuclear's has done pretty much the opposite, solar will probably win out long term.
I do agree that over the course of the next 10-50 years renewables + storage is likely to be cheaper.
What I'm not sure about is if "the grid" will be cheaper or if we'll end up seeing the renewables self-ownership spiral that causes folks to disconnect from the grid, driving prices up for everyone else on the grid, thus causing more people to disconnect, etc. When renewables are cheap and your house's usage is fairly well known (see years of smart meter historical data) then at some point it becomes economically feasible to be your own grid.
One interesting case study is Puerto Rico, which now has a lot of microgrids post-Maria because PREPA is not trusted and suffering from mismanagement.
Once the tax effectiveness of being able to depreciate the panels gets taken into account it's a pretty nice investment.
The two risks are intertwined: A hostile state in the region with modern submarines (gee, I wonder who that could be?) is likely to be perfectly capable of cutting the cable — which would give the hostile state the ability to hold Singapore hostage, perhaps in support of exerting power in the Strait of Malacca maritime choke point and/or in the South China Sea. If I were Singapore's leaders, I'd want at least one Plan B.
Still using your other numbers, seems like a bargain, even at US$1.6B/GW
It’s possible AU+SG May have more organizational success. Only two players, both OECD countries. But the technical hurdles remain immense.
7 years later, the French forces are still on the ground, trying to help in stabilizing not only Mali, but also the whole Sahel region. With little stabilization success so far, but a second Islamic state in this area was avoided thanks to this intervention.
You say that like it's a bad thing.
"Ensuring stability with force" does not work. Stability can only be ensured with prosperity.
Certainly a lot of military "interventions" in the past couple of decades have been pretty disastrous though.
I propose a "you break it you buy it" model. Until such time as Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have peace and good governance, no more military adventures to spread liberal democracy.
Nobody is talking about re-occupying North Africa.
Again, you're reading too much into this. Maybe go back to Portland with that rhetoric?
(That’s alongside other obvious issues such as the political instability others have alluded to).
10GW plant with a 30GWh battery. The enormous South Australia battery Musk put in is about 125MWh - 0.5% of that size.
If Singapore only needed one natural gas very large super tanker, we would need to increase the global feet of super tankers by 7-20% just to ship electrical energy to Singapore.
Cheap LFP batteries get around 160-170wh/kg.
Largest supertankers have net tonnage of around 250000.
250000000 * 170 = 42.5GWH.
Quite respectable. Karadeniz (the biggest floating powerplant operator) has actually floated the idea.
Hydrogen has significant inefficiencies and conversion losses compared to batteries, but the energy density is much higher (up to 40,000 Wh/kg)
"2018, the amount of electricity consumed in Singapore reached about 50.5 thousand gigawatt hours"
So if you can manage three of those arriving every day you can meet Singapore's electricity needs.
If they can get usable flow batteries on a ship, this will be quite an option to powerships even today.
That battery is only used for a very small peak / corner case and at least when I looked at the numbers last year hadn’t yet paid for its cost, despite some breathless claims. I do expect it to pay off though.
The entire demand for a battery like that for a country like Australia is probably one unit. And it’s no accident that it was installed in south Australia, not one of the more densely settled states.
It was a good PR stunt, but doesn’t really teach anything special.
It was installed in South Australia because the whole state suffered a blackout in 2016 from an overloaded transmission network.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_South_Australian_blackout
The other Australian states didn't have the pressing need, but I don't see why it wouldn't be equally feasible.
Well.. of course? 2 years payoff would seem unbelievably fast for any infrastructure project. It did save $40M last year alone though (the project cost $86M).
> The entire demand for a battery like that for a country like Australia is probably one unit. And it’s no accident that it was installed in south Australia, not one of the more densely settled states.
Err.. no.
There are around 40 proposed or signed projects in Australia larger than that battery.
Here is a signed one being built now with a 400 MWh battery: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/06/26/australia-approves-72...
The Lake Bonney 50MWh battery has been around for nearly 2 years now: https://www.infigenenergy.com/our-assets/firming-assets/
Approved 600MWh project in Geelong: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/07/australia-to-host-600...
Another 14 projects here in NSW alone (many of which are pumped hydro or compressed air or other interesting forms of storage): https://reneweconomy.com.au/fourteen-new-big-battery-storage...
Any engineer would take one look at this and go yep, let's put a nuclear reactor on one or more of Singapore's 64 surrounding islands.
Singapore could get oodles of solar from Malaysia but they obviously aren't interested in doing that. Since the guys financing it have no qualms about fronting this project obviously Singapore is keen to fund this project as a customer but wants to be seen for some reason as a reluctant buyer.
To anyone who knows the history of Singapore, it is obvious why (and you quite possibly already know all this, but I'm sure many other people reading this don't). Singapore became independent because the Malaysian government wanted to introduce "affirmative action" laws which discriminated against ethnic minorities, especially ethnic Chinese. Singapore was the only state of Malaysia with an ethnic Chinese majority, and was fundamentally opposed to such laws. The Malaysian federal government's response was to expel Singapore from Malaysia and force it to become an independent country, so that it would be free to impose these laws on the rest of Malaysia without Singapore's opposition. And Singapore has never trusted Malaysia since.
https://coconuts.co/singapore/features/ns50-celebrates-50-ye...
But if we're talking Malaysian Chinese....
People need to stop worshipping Singapore like they are a fantasy land of perfection. They have specific flaws of their own, plus flaws similar to other countries.
An older friend told a story of a colleague he worked with in Vietnam who got married and tried to move back to Singapore. Multiple attempts to let his wife come along were rejected until he amended the paperwork to say she was Chinese ethnicity.
Might be a tall tale, but that's how it was told to me. I don't know the exact years in question though, it might have been a decade or more ago.
Personally, I am still angry at Singapore over the execution of Van Tuong Nguyen.
Malaysia at least is working on trying to abolish the death penalty. Singapore doesn't appear interested in that.
Malaysia is definitely ahead of Singapore in the area of political pluralism (although it is too early to say whether Malaysia's recent improvements in this area are going to endure.)
On the other hand, in the specific area of treatment of ethnic minorities, I still believe Singapore is ahead of Malaysia. The Singaporean government does ethnically discriminate in some areas, but to a far lesser extent than the Malaysian government does
Religious freedom is another area in which I'd say Singapore remains ahead of Malaysia: the Singaporean government imposes some restrictions on non-mainstream religious groups (like Jehovah's Witnesses and Unification Church), but it is officially neutral in religious matters; Malaysia's government does not display anywhere near the same neutrality
High time that William Gibson does another article on Singapore.
I think the difference is between a country whose official written policies claim to treat minorities fairly and equally, but which often in practice fails to fully live up to those claims (and Singapore is far from being the only country for which that's true); and a country whose official legislated government policy is to discriminate against ethnic minorities. Can you see how the later is worse than former?
But I suspect that most people prefer Singapore even compared to the rest of the world and I personally think they are falling for the trap personally set for them by the Lee family.
Electricity generation in Singapore runs on natural gas which are fed from pipelines to fields in Indonesia and Malaysia. LNG ports were developed to create an international supply chain and a solar cable to Australia would be a similar geostrategic/economic strategy of diversification through multiple vendors.
Malaysia has, at any rate, sowed the harvest of their political strategy. The Malay population has crept upwards as a percentage of total population, as Indians and Chinese with any ability have left for Australia and Singapore as popular destinations. This has secured pro-Malay politics as the only way to win an election in Malaysia, but ironically the increased ground means the old monolith pro-Malay party has splintered to fight for control. Today's Malaysia sees several strong pro-Malay parties jostling for power.
Singapore would prefer nobody build a nuclear reactor anywhere near it. Even if a reactor was located 50km away outside of Singapore, any accident could divert shipping lanes away from the Malacca Strait and disrupt air travel that hubs in Singapore. A nuclear reactor strategy for Singapore is like picking pennies before a bulldozer.
This was actually a plan years ago[1], but they couldn’t identify an island that they found suitable for building/reclamation and which met the 30km setback requirements for a nuclear plant.
1. https://mothership.sg/2018/08/lee-kuan-yew-nuclear-power-pla...
I'm sure there's political manoeuvring involved, but are you asserting that this will not be economically advantageous to both parties involved in the trade?
> Any engineer would take one look at this and go yep, let's put a nuclear reactor on one or more of Singapore's 64 surrounding islands.
Some engineers might, but it sounds like a very expensive and high risk proposition.
Hmm, trying to think of some recent accidents that involved nuclear fission power plants built close to sea level.
> Singapore could get oodles of solar from Malaysia but they obviously aren't interested in doing that.
Apart from the political complexities, you may find the air pollution and frequency of storms in that region would significantly impact on the oodle volume.
Parts of far north Australia certainly have a wet season, but I suspect if you compared hours of sunlight per year, it'd be well ahead of Malaysia. Latitude seasonal advantages might also be a consideration.
Fukushima is a good lesson, but nuclear power can clearly be engineered to work safely at sea level and below. The US Navy submarine corps has demonstrated it for decades.
Singapore is a technologically advanced society, they could pull it off if they gave it the attention it deserves.
There's no evidence that Singapore has not already considered this idea, and subsequently given it precisely the attention it deserves.
I understand that you think it's a grand idea, but the indisputable fact that many technologically advanced societies are eschewing these things may indicate your evaluation criteria is incomplete.
How big is the Chernobyl or Fukushima exclusion zone? How big is Singapore?
One accident and the country would be essentially gone.
> The mean value of acute fatality risk by radiation exposure resultant from an accident of a nuclear installation to individuals of the public, who live in the vicinity of the site boundary of the nuclear installation, should not exceed the probability of about 1×10^6 per year (that is, at least 1 per million years)
Their one in a million-year accident occurred about 8 years later.
You can't trust theoretically derived probabilities, such as those used when discussing the safety of the nuclear field for which the effective track record is only 70 years.
I'll give it a go.
From the article you cite:
"Nuclear: there are two key points to differentiate in the estimates of nuclear energy safety. The first is the period which the studies cover. Analysis by Markandya & Wilkinson (2007) predates the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, and therefore does not include this accident in its estimates. This fact, however, does not fully explain why the two studies differ: we might assume the inclusion of the Fukushima disaster would increase death rates but in fact the estimates of Sovacool et al. (2016) are lower.
"The largest differentiator here is the period which the Sovacool et al. (2016) estimates cover. They report normalized death rates over the limited period from 1990 to 2013. This means the 1986 Chernobyl accident was not included. Sovacool et al. (2016) only include deaths from the Fukushima accident, with 573 attributed deaths. It is useful to note here that not all deaths were a direct result of the accident: for Fukushima, there were no direct deaths from the disaster; one confirmed death from radiation exposure; and the rest noted as premature deaths from evacuation and displacement of populations in the surrounding area."
In addition I see that they are considering deaths only, which for both fossil fuels and nuclear fission is going to skew the numbers in their favour compared to renewable.
Not sure what a complete picture would look like - you'd have to put some $-values against health & QoL impacts, and that's assuming you could accurately do root cause on chronic illness back to a power generation.
In any case, nuclear fission is unlikely to make a resurgence, for any number of reasons.
And if you read further you see this:
Let’s again put this into the context of our town of 27,000 EU citizens, who would collectively consume around one terawatt-hour of energy a year. These are the impacts if they got all of their energy from a given source:
Coal: 25 people would die prematurely every year;
...
Nuclear: it would take between 14 and 100 years before someone died;
...
Solar: 53 years before someone died.
Also, the costs of nuclear accidents are generally underestimated:
according to our analysis, with 388 reactors in operation, there is a 50% probability of a Fukushima-like event (or more costly) every 60–150 years, and a Three Mile Island event (or more costly) every 10–20 years.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-15/mapping-n...
[2] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_earthquakes_1...
As a species, we have not demonstrated the ability to create engineering organizations that put safety first in design and operations of Nuclear power plants - even the Japanese with their renowned safety culture couldn't do manage it.
Maybe if and when we get intrinsically safe nuclear power plants that demonstrably cannot irridate their surroundings if things go boom, then I'd reconsider but i don't believe there are any of those operational anywhere currently.
And they are not interested in a cable to Indonesia either. Even an overland "transit" from a third country was refused by them.
But it's actually very cool. Like sending a person to the moon it pushes science forward. It's not another dumb shove more solar panels on houses idea.
It allows Australia a lot of power over Singapore and the region which is good for them.
I guess the question is what's the side ways difference between NT and Singapore? It's a one and half hour time zone difference. How much peak/off peak/day time advantage do they get with the the different sun times.
Why this over Perth? (I'd guess it's a simple power lines in the ocean is cheaper)
1. Darwin is thousands of kilometres closer.
2. Laying submarine cables from Darwin to Singapore has been done more than once, it's a known route.
Laying cables overland would be an order of magnitude more unless you could do fibre at the same time to make it cheaper or something.
But the route by sea is still shorter between Perth and Melbourne.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=distance+darwin+singap...
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=perth+to+melbourne+dis...
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=perth+to+melbourne+dis...
So an overland or sea route from Perth to Adelaide, potentially following the existing rail lines would get you the advantages of the time zone differences as well as integrating Perth into the NEM.
A popular video a few years ago which demonstrate, uhm, a 3D printing of models out of sand.
The longest undersea interconnector currently under construction is the North Sea Link between the UK and Norway (700 km, 1400 MW): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_Link
At 3700 km, Australia-ASEAN would be far beyond the length of anything that has been built or considered to date!
And according to your link, Australia's Basslink is owned by the government of Singapore. So that helps explain why they aren't afraid to do this. They've done it before.