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Comment by GavinMcG | Hacker News Reader

The difference is that a lockdown can predictably drop r0 below 1 over a relatively finite amount of time. It doesn't need to be ongoing, as in your examples.

Also, the U.S. did not conduct a lockdown. By all means, look to the countries that did, and see how many new homeless that created.

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Australia is looking at up to 40% of all households with mortgages to be foreclosed on within the next 3 years:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-04/covid-recession-mortg...

I guess you are referring to the "mortgage stress" number from the article (37.5%). That sounds high, but it was 32.7% already in December 2019[1].

And you are throwing statistics out there without bothering to make an argument. Being in mortgage stress certainly isn't the same as being homeless now or in the future.

https://www.savings.com.au/home-loans/1-1-million-households...

The Australian government does not have the power to bring the dead to life but it does have the power to bail-out home owners, and everyone else badly effected by the economic crisis. Given that the economic problems can be offset with enough economic stimulus, but dead people can not be brought back to life, it seems obvious which course should be taken.

Also, after the first Victorian attempt to control CV19 through lockdown succeeded and lockdown was raised, there was a significant quarantine breach, after which infections ran out of control. This evidence completely invalidates the premise of your first point regarding r0.

Had people actually observed the restrictions, the Victorian economy would be fully open, like New Zealand is now.

>This evidence completely invalidates the premise of your first point regarding r0.

You do realize that it's exactly the opposite right?

If asymptomatic r0 is high a quarantine without a lock down is pointless. If it's low no lock down is required and a quarantine is enough?

We had a lockdown and a quarantine. The quarantine breach occurred after lockdown had reduced transmission. We are now again in stage 4 lockdowns with curfews and quarantine and the numbers are falling again.

But you really don’t seem particularly interested in facts.

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