Well, yeah, that's absolutely expected. The promise of index funds isn't "you'll always make money!!" over any short-term period, the promise is that if the stock market as a whole increase, which it tends to do, you'll also benefit from that.

>Surely we can pick names based on how we think those technologies are likely to be successful.

Time and time again, especially now, "fundamentals" has proven to be a poor predictor, at least in the short term. You have companies with P/E ratios of 20-30 right now.

It's not just about the underlying product, perception and all kinds of human effects also matter, which makes it a perilous place to be.

Throw your money in a big bucket and over 20-30 years, you'll be up. That's the point.