[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/ [2] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall
[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/ [2] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall
You can use a variety of online calculators to back test a 4% withdrawal rate - maybe 80% safe, but 20% of the time you'll go broke before dying.
The first is going back to the origins of the 4% number in the first place, the trinity study. The parameters for that were a 30 year retirement period, and success was "not completely run out of money after 30 years, 95% of the time". If you extrapolate from that original study, if you retire for more than 30 years (FIRE includes retiring early), success drops from 95%.
There's articles exploring that, e.g.
https://www.fiphysician.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-early-retir...
https://www.madfientist.com/safe-withdrawal-rate/#:~:text=Th...
And then there are a variety of online calculators where you can play with the numbers yourself.
The other elephant in the room is pre-Medicare healthcare costs.
VOO and TLT have limited correlation as treasuries are seen as a safe-haven. We've seen huge spikes in treasury funds recently, since they go up in value when interest rates go down. It's a bit unintuitive, but treasury funds have to cycle through their holdings over time to track the index, so when interest rates on new issues go down, older issues command a premium in the amount of pre-paid interest.
I'd suggest something like this.
(1) Have 6 months of expenses set aside.
(2) Max out your tax-advantaged retirement accounts.
(3) Allocate some amount of capital to traditional or conservative investments, and some amount to more aggressive plays. The more time you have in the market, the more aggressive you can afford to be. Having both types of investments will give you the comfort you need during rough times that your riskier plays come through eventually.
(4) If you're looking at property, consider setting aside a down-payment. Keep in mind that if you're employed, buying a house in cash may not be the optimal strategy as you can deduct large quantities of your mortgage payments, giving you, with 20% down, a 5X leveraged investment in real-estate with deductible expenses and historically-low interest rates. Mortgage interest rates are just a hair over inflation, and when you deduct the interest from your taxes, you're actually saving money with a mortgage.
(5) Now that you have a large chunk of capital, you can consider financing some purchases yourself at extremely low rates by taking advantage of margin borrowing. InteractiveBrokers offer 1.5% interest margin loans, and you could, if within your risk tolerance, borrow some amount of money collateralized by your (safe) equity positions. This 1.5% interest is also tax-deductible. Obviously be careful, a margin call is something to avoid, but against a $450K portfolio, I personally wouldn't sweat borrowing $45K.
One thing I was able to do personally is borrow enough on margin to make a down-payment on a property. This allowed me to deduct the entire balance of my mortgage, beyond the $750K cap, and at 1.5% the margin interest is much lower than if I'd financed the whole thing.
https://capitalallocatorspodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2017...
Edit: For more clarity - risk parity can make sense, but I don't think you ever need to use leverage on your equities to get risk parity. The fundamental insight of risk parity investing is that at commonly recommended ratios (50/50, 60/40) the risk (variance) from equities totally dominates the risk from bonds. So the risk parity advice is usually something with a much higher bond mix, but the entire portfolio is leveraged. But DO NOT use levered ETFs that recognize, say, 3x the DAILY movement of the S&P to do this. They don't do what you think. Read that link, or compute the following two scenarios:
1) Market goes up 1.1% on odd days, down 1% on even days. That yields about 9% (200 trading days). But a 3x daily etf product would only get you about 22%, not 27%.
2) Market foes up 1% on odd days, down 1.1% on even. That, sadly, means you lose about 11% on the year. If you use a 3x DAILY etf product, you lose around 75%.
That issue is addressed in the bogleheads post explicitly ("How much does the leverage cost?" and "Don't you know that leveraged ETFs are only intended to be held for one day?"), basically the ETFs are risk parity adjusted, and the volatility in the ETFs actually what generates the returns. The strategy makes money from volatility, and the 3X leverage is used to add volatility in, exaggerating the returns.
I think you might find the post interesting because it seems like you are interested in investing. What you're saying is again explicitly addressed there, and factored into the calculation. They work an example of that kind of decay, and how it's mitigated. Specifically, it doesn't matter that you have volatility decay in one of the ETFs because they're uncorrelated, and when one goes up the other goes down, canceling out the effect.
Your blanket statement does not apply to this specific strategy. It's not wrong in general, but it's not relevant here.
If you don't want to read the bogleheads write-up it's also addressed on Seeking Alpha [1].
> "That, sadly, means you lose about 11% on the year."
Not if, as you see in the write-up, you pair it with an uncorrelated 3X leveraged asset and rebalance periodically.
The post includes a backtest to 1987.
[1] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4308489-why-leveraged-etfs-...
Also, that strategy fails in a rising interest rates environment like in the 50s and 60s (not sure of exact years). Fed has indicated keeping rates low for the next two years, but if they start hiking rates after, I think the strategy would underperform.
The strategy would fail if both interest rates went up and equities went down or stayed flat. While the potential exists for an underperform condition there in a couple of years I personally suspect the fed won’t raise rates unless equities are performing spectacularly. I’m quite skeptical if their 2 year time frame, even to say we may be looking at the new normal.
Low net volatility, high returns. Backtesting of the strategy shows total returns just under 3x the return of the unleveraged portfolios, just what I expect given the leverage costs.
I expect both strategies to be both market-agnostic and age-agnostic. About as close to fire and forget as you can get.
I've made good money on them as well, but I shuffle money in and out frequently.
It's not a good strategy unless you really want to study things.
(1) What people refer to as "decay" is just the way the the daily exposure works on these ETFs. To quote the article:
"Let's say over five days the daily returns of the index are +1%, -2%, +3%, -4%, +5%, and you start with $100."
"At the end of the five days your $100.00 becomes $102.76."
"Now let's use a 3X leveraged ETF. Ignoring ER and other costs, the daily returns are +3%, -6%, +9%, -12%, +15%."
"At the end of the five days your $100.00 becomes $106.80."
6.80 is not 3X 2.76, and it's because down days leave you with less exposure the following day, so you need a bigger up day than the preceding down day to make up for it. However, as the article points out, this dynamic works for you in ETFs that exhibit positive momentum. Since "stocks always go up" -- at least the S&P always goes up over time, so far -- this dynamic works to your favor and the total return of UPRO to date has been 5X the return of SPY.
(2) UPRO and TMF are uncorrelated, and so the positive momentum of SPY causes UPRO performance to exceed 3X, and offset some of the lower-than-3X performance of TMF over time. For the record since 2017, the performance of TMF is 2X that of TLT, give or take.
(3) Further, the way this makes money is actually when the S&P drops 10%, UPRO drops 30%. As people flee assets, they buy treasuries, pushing TLT up 6-7%, which causes TMF to go up 20%. Then at rebalancing time, you sell TMF and use it to buy UPRO, so you sell the 3X winner, and buy the 3X loser at a deflated price. When prices normalize, the extra shares on the losing end in conjunction with positive momentum (and the fact you've reduced the size of your winner before it falls) put you much further ahead than if you weren't using leveraged ETFs.
This strategy makes money on volatility, and should be agnostic to market performance. It actually held up really well during March.
This will very likely make less money but really, I can pay all my (admittedly very modest) bills with my portfolio and have returns left over + my actual day job income so honestly, why do I care?
I come from a privileged background and I lived that life. I didn't like it and have no interest in returning to it.
People have to find the strategy and mix that works for them.
If it were possible (I recognize it isn't, due to margin limits), would it not be better to be 3x leveraged in your margin account, and simply buy the basic S&P and bond products? Wouldn't that avoid the "drag", and you'd end up better off?
(1) Sell $80K in assets, and use the proceeds, on top of your checking account balance to make a wire transfer.
(2) Now you have $360K in your investment account. You take a margin loan out in the amount of $80K.
(3) Use that $80K to re-establish your $440K investment portfolio.
You haven't used your margin loan to make a down payment, you've sold your assets and used the proceeds to make a down payment. You've then re-taken your investment position using a margin loan. The margin loan isn't collateralizing your down payment, it's making up for a reduction in the net liquidation value of your investment account as a result of your having used it to make a down payment, allowing you to retain your the prior level of exposure to equities in your trading account.
You don't have to go through the actual song and dance, and re-taking your equity positions would result in an IRS wash sale anyways, but that's why withdrawing cash on margin to make a down payment means the margin loan remains an investment expense -- it's there to allow you to retain your desired level of exposure to equities.
As time goes on, a site remaining minimalist like this is a good indicator of value. I'll never understand the desire to move away from high density UX like this to the modern web junk UX that looks more appealing but makes everything more convoluted.
What I was trying to say, but didn't have the space to fully articulate, was that it can look a little noisy and random at first glance. As I write this some of the top threads include posts about replacing a toilet valve, herbicide use, and motivating a son in law. Once you filter through some of this though there are a lot of really smart people giving pretty good financial advice.
Writing an investment policy statement is something bogleheads recommend doing which I would suggest as well. The statement helps guide investment decisions based on goals you wish to achieve.
The most important part of investing is staying the course. Staying the course is hard in bad markets like 2008 or during the pandemic which is why accurately assessing your risk tolerance is so important.
1. put 6 months of expenses in a high-yield savings account that is easily accessible + liquid in case of emergencies
2. max out tax-advantaged accounts. $19.5k/yr 401k + $6k/yr IRA. allocate into anything similar to a target date retirement fund with healthy exposure to US total market/probably light bonds depending on age
3. put the rest in a brokerage account, allocated in the same things your 401k + IRA are allocated in (target date retirement funds that track things similar to VOO/SPY/VTI/FZROX/etc.)
I don't think most people need a financial advisor, but if I had a $450k pile of cash and I wanted to understand the tax consequences of various investments I would definitely pay for a consultation.
I think you have to be a little careful with this.
Shockingly, most financial professionals do not have a fiduciary duty to their clients. If you pay for advice, I'd definitely recommend getting one that does have a fiduciary duty to their clients.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/22/your-money/fiduciary-rule...
1. In general, since the 1970s, house prices have across the United States tracked inflation. The price per square foot on a house, on average, is exactly the same as it was back then (houses are more expensive because the average US house has gotten bigger, and in some metros like SF, city councils have flatly refused to allow building to buff up house prices).
2. A mortgage is basically free when you discount inflation and deduct the interest. The fed target for in the US is roughly 2%. This means that a 2% interest mortgage is free money, i.e. while you pay a 2% interest rate, the principal is worth 2% less, as you get to pay off the 2020 house price using 2021 dollars. So a 2.675% APR mortgage has an effective cost of 0.675%.
3. If you're working you get to deduct the entire 2.675% (of the first $750,000 in mortgage), so you get back up to 45% of it if you're in the top tax bracket. As such, the effective interest rate discounting inflation and interest tax deduction is negative, -0.53% APR.
4. On top of the interest rate on a 30-year fixed being effectively negative (i.e. generating value), you can invest the other 80% of $450,000. You should have no trouble generating 7% per year on that $360,000.
5. In aggregate, your return on capital by making a 20% down-payment on a $450,000 house at 2.675% APR in the top tax bracket could easily be ((0.53% + 7%) * $360,000) per year, plus your house should appreciate in value at inflation, but because it's a 5X leveraged investment, you're generating (2% * $450,000) per year on a $90,000 down-payment.
So, your total return could be:
1. $90,000 @ 10% + $360,000 @ 7.53% or...
2. $450,000 @ 2%.
Given the lack of fees or penalties for pre-payment, you can always pull the ripcord if your situation no longer makes sense by just paying it off.
2. homeowner's associate fees
3. property taxes
4. maintenance/upkeep
don't those cut into your "compare a house to investing in index funds" example?
Also, why is option 2 @2%? If you're investing the $360k at 7%, you should compare it to the same investment at 7%.
Option 2 is a $450K cash purchase of a house, which, on average, appreciates at the fed target inflation rate of 2%.
Indeed although in both cases you own the home and are subject to the same depreciation risk right? Although if you're willing to take a credit hit, I suppose you're shifting that depreciation onto the bank.
[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-managed_fund_comparison
There are quite a few caveats in that wiki article, e.g. stuff like this:
> Your actual tax cost will be higher if you owe state taxes (add your state tax rate on the dividend yield, reduced by your federal tax rate if you itemize deductions and are not over the limit for deducting state taxes) or are in the phase-out range for some tax benefit such as the child tax credit (add 5% to all tax rates) or the personal exemption phase-out for the Alternative Minimum Tax (add 7% to all tax rates, but your overall tax on non-qualified dividends is 28%).
That's a bit complicated. I would still recommend paying for at least a one-time consultation with a financial and/or tax advisor before choosing where to put $450k.
1. Something like Series I bonds for long-term future economic downturns or inflation
2. A CD ladder or money market for temporary job loss
3. Cash in a mattress and food/water for natural disasters
4. Guns, ammo, and containers of gasoline for the zombie apocalypse.
Weight each tranche by your assessment of each event's probability. You diversify the rest of your portfolio, why not diversify your emergency fund?