The chances of all three of those conditions being true at the same time is approximately zero though.
Generally speaking, I treat stock options as worthless, especially if it's a company where there is no market and no known price for the shares. It's easy to wind up in a case where exercising your options would cost more than the stock is worth, by the time you're able to exercise them.
A stock grant is worth something, but those are much less common. And how to value them is, again, dependent on "is there a market?", "are there restrictions on when and how I can sell them?", etc.
So far, that position has been borne out. Promised options have either:
a. Never actually materialized
or
b. Were never worth enough to bother exercising
The average lifespan of a startup is 3 years, so unless it's zoom and covid 2 comes in the next 3 years, your stocks won't be worth much.
I'd take the money.
Specially in an era like today with financial crisis and scandals, cash is king.