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Comment by ratsmack | Hacker News Reader

I'm wondering what's going to happen when the reality sinks in on the real estate market, especially with all of the restaurants and retail that have closed shop for good. I think all of the REIT's are in for a world of hurt in the 3rd quarter.

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It takes about a year for changes in the market to fully hit real estate fund valuations, even when they mark-to-market on a quarterly basis. The thing is, nobody is selling so recent transactions that are used for valuation aren't impacted yet. In the short run you can account for lost rent under short term delinquency.

This could indeed become very interesting not only for retail and restaurant real estate.

If there are considerably less entertainment locations in cities, moving to the city could potentially become a lot less attractive, especially for young people. Combined with the current push for remote work by workers and companies alike this could push real estate prices way down.

Already happening, at least for rentals. We got a massive ranch in Sonoma for 10% the usual price and made a coliving for founders there (btw, hit me up if interested to join)

While it's true that there are more bars and restaurants and opera houses in huge cities, there are still many bars and restaurants everywhere, it was never about bars and restaurants. Just because that's somewhere young people occasionally go and spend some of their income on doesn't mean it's the most important thing, or even the 10th most important thing.

Obviously the most valuable part of a city is its demographics. Especially young college educated people, and in really big metropolises, the ones with the hottest real estate markets, of single college educated people between 20-40.

To keep this focused, the day trading is mostly caused by returns. That's not saying much. It's pretty crazy how much the retail trader has been outer-performing some classes of professionals though, especially in the last quarter. [1] It isn't on like, having a sophisticated market thesis obviously.

It's just this huge, persistent, ugly refutation of the finance professional. Index investing was the vanguard not the main force; retail trading is the main force.

[1] https://www.barrons.com/articles/retail-traders-are-beating-...

Or there is a reasonably effective vaccine in 1q timeframe and much of the long term extrapolation from a temporary situation is overdone. I’m certainly not saying this is going to be the outcome but it is a very real possibility.

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