Greatest irony of all, they named their firm "Long-term Capital Management", while taking hugely leveraged short-term positions ($1 trillion dollars worth of derivatives backed by about $100 billion or so assets) that were beyond the understanding of anyone else. Didn't last 4 years before they blew. They did show 40% annual returns when they started and I guess that's what kept them going without much regulation. But man, did they crash hard. Investors who were returned their money after a year or 2, and those who were turned down from even investing must have thanked their Gods for saving them from absolute destruction.
There is another book by Michael Lewis (who also wrote "The Big Short") called "The Liar's Poker", where he talks about his time at Salomon Brothers and how they collapsed in a very similar fashion. Highly levered derivatives with a magic formula that has worked well (so far..). It's fascinating how they were allowed to do what they did. Open gambling with client's money, and no repercussions on loosing it all. "Blowing up a customer" was apparently common and chalked up to a rookie's mistake. "Baptism by fire". How did the rookies even get access to millions of dollars of money to bet on crazy derivatives!!
I feel that every time a major upset in the financial markets lands on us, it is because some group of really talented people managed to convince everyone that they discovered something that no one else has and have "cracked the market" by showing consistently high returns for a period of time, and gain access to huge pools of capital. Only, after a few years the market turns around, showing a side of things that they did not take into account and the whole thing goes belly up, market crashes, loads of people loose money, mostly its everyone else but that group (leverage, borrowing, access to someone else's capital etc).
And because everyone who was supposed to keep them in check did not do it because despite it being their job not to, they did take them for their word, they try to cover it all up by paying the very people who caused all the trouble and who were supposed to watch out for all this.
Banking world seems to have a lot of conflict of interest all around. It is much better now, with lots more rules and regulations, but it is still there.
Anyone making bets will eventually win big if there is no limit on credit, just by betting bigger and bigger until they catch a break.
But there's always a limit.
EDIT: Maybe you mean that they didn't try to make a larger bet after they got in trouble? But whether they needed to make a bigger bet or whether their existing bet was already too big, it's still the same issue; the only way to avoid liquidation is to expand the use of credit, which hits a limit at some point.
I tried to point out that LTCM had a very reliable and profitable trade on the basis anomalies they identified, which, combined with their imprimatur and aggressiveness, enabled the leverage that enabled them to dig their own grave (they ended up with nearly the same leverage as Lehman).
I worked on a team with OG LTCM and Lehman MBS quants, and they had some very interesting stories parallel to the standard narratives you hear about these events.
But, hey, I'd bet on coin flips all day long if I was given favorable odds.
> They were always winning
Give me a break.