Worst- and Best-Case Scenarios for Warming Less Likely, Study Finds

For those looking for the changes: >The metric has existed for decades now. In 1979, a groundbreaking report led by Massachusetts Institute of Technology scientist Jule Charney—dubbed the “Charney Report”—suggested the planet’s climate sensitivity probably fell within a range of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of CO2.

>The new study narrows the range at both ends, particularly the lower end. It finds there’s a 66% chance that the sensitivity range falls between 2.6 and 3.9 C of warming (4.9 to 7 F).

Also the article mentions analyzing how the Earth reacts to change being a big reason for the update, particularly clouds:

>Perhaps most importantly, the new study investigates multiple lines of evidence when it comes to climate sensitivity. It uses global climate models, which simulate large-scale processes across the whole world. It also uses detailed, process-based models, which can simulate fine-scale events related to the formation of clouds.

>The new report devotes a large chunk of its analysis exclusively to clouds. It examines the growing body of science on how different types of clouds respond to climate change, and how changes in these clouds may affect future climate change.

Not only with clouds but feedback loops in general are the most interesting aspect of these predictions for me. I'm sure it's insanely difficult to calculate all factors, but I wonder how all-encompassing these models tend to be. The article mentions this being a type of meta analysis, but for a single study looking at clouds, for example, is the lowering of Earth's albedo due to melting ice typically something they would take into account when studying cloud predictions or not?