Everywhere saw a similar shape of curve, i.e. exponential increase until the lockdown, then slow exponential decrease. The peak of the curve differed widely, and countries that were slow to lock down like the UK, Sweden and USA have seen some of the worst outcomes.

Correlating lockdown policy to outcome does not make sense because lockdowns are instituted in response to case levels in the first place. It is like correlating fire trucks and fires, and finding that fire trucks cause fires because there are more of them in dry, fire-prone areas.

Sweden provides something close to a natural experiment, it has similar culture and climate to its neighbors but a far worse outcome after it did not lock down.

Prisons are not especially weighted toward older people and they have seen outbreaks with as many as 80% being infected.