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Comment by duxup | Hacker News Reader

I guess it depends on what we would want from crime predictions.

Do we want a Minority Report type system where someone shows up right before the crime and prevents it?

They mention burglary. I'm guessing most buglers aren't seasoned professional buglers and rather it is a crime of opportunity. So if a cop is on the street they won't do it ... but maybe they'll do it the next street over, 20 minutes later?

Even if somehow there was better prediction, there really aren't enough police to patrol the target street, and the next one over, and the next one ... predictions may suppose infinite police resources would prevent it, but that's not a thing.

This might be a topic where 'prevention' isn't really possible.

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I don't have numbers, but I don't think there is much home burglary as a crime of opportunity in Switzerland. The places worth entering, usually have good enough security measures, that you need to come prepared and it is going to take you some time. What you usually hear is certain neighboorhoods being scouted for lights being off for longer time, indicating the people are on vaccation. But I don't know in what regards crime predictions systems are useful for that, what value they add.

Interesting.

In the US break ins very much are more likely in less affluent areas.

In Germany it's very much not like that, organized groups (often coming from and returning to eastern european countries) make up a big chunk of burglaries and they are careful to choose areas with a high effort/reward ratio, which are rarely the low income areas.

I think because of low poverty and expansive social nets, crimes out of desperation are rare. E.g. Reducing crime is explicitly one of the main reasons why Switzerland mantains its heroin programme, providing the drug for free to people who have failed mutliple withdrawal attempts.

The risk/reward for small crimes just doesn't check out for almost everyyone. Why a lot of those is in the hands of organised crime that can scale and optimize it and pick out the people willing to do the "last mile" dirty work.

Repeat rates are VERY high in burglary. And a person who hasn't burgled is relative unlikely to commit a home burglary even if the opportunity presents. Some neighborhoods without repeaters here all leave their doors unlocked. I grew up in an area like this, never had a house key until I moved away, we would go on months long vacations without locking up the house. Literally EVERY neighbor could have walked in anytime (house was totally dark). It never happened.

Car thefts as well, I lived in a tough neighborhood, same guys checking cars all the time. If these guys were around just roll down windows and leave car unlocked. Still had my car stolen which was annoying.

You might be confusing petty theft (pickpocketing etc.) with the legal of definition of burglary. Burglary involves breaking into property and then stealing something.

I don't know how you could possibly commit burglary as a crime of opportunity.

You see an empty house, it's quiet, you act.

I'd imagine burglars would scout the houses and area well before going in, and in Europe they have professional gangs.

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