Major new climate study rules out less severe global warming scenarios | Hacker News Reader

Major new climate study rules out less severe global warming scenarios

washingtonpost.com

28 pointsnabla914 comments

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019...

I would highly recommend “The Uninhabitable Earth”. I’m 27 and for at least 10 years I’ve been aware of the people trying valiantly to sound the alarm about climate change, but only recently has this disaster sunk in.

Maybe it’s because it was the right book at the right time, but reading through I could felt my connection with the emergency in my stomach.

I can only guess that this is true, but at times reading it I’d sense an uneasiness in myself like I was learning of an imminent world war. Given what Climate Change is and what destruction looms, it’s the most appropriate disposition I’ve had towards the problem.

If I can figure out exactly how many beers it takes to get stomach cancer, I should be fine to have exactly one fewer.

I just need to know I am measuring this very precisely.

“An analysis finds the most likely range of warming from doubling carbon dioxide to be between 4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit.“

If this was indeed such a problem, the world would be on a strict lockdown for next few years. It isn't happening because the expected global warming is too far in the future: too far for the ruling class to care. Downvote all you want.

People are stupid and are only taking action if the irrefutable proof is ripping off their faces in bloody shreds from their skulls and gauging out their eyes.

Case and point? Current U.S. Republican behavior when it comes to Covid-19. Denial, denial, denial. Let's pretend we can continue business as usual because it's working out pretty well so far.

Well, it does. Until it doesn't.

The thing with the climate cataclysm is that when things are reaching the point where it is getting really uncomfortable, it will be way to late to do anything about it.

But don't worry; we'll all be experiencing the beginning of the worst in about 20 to 25 years. That will be happy times.

> too far for the ruling class to care

Why would the "ruling class" care less than everyone else? Don't they live on the same planet?

They probably know that visible effects of global warming won't manifest themselves until a century later: enough time for them and their kids. They don't care about their hypothetical grandkids. When the world starts collapsing in a century, they expect to have machines to fully replace 99% of the workforce: so most of the populace will fight for scare sources of clean water, while the rich would live somewhere in new Zealand, protected by unapproachable army of machines. That's what I think is their plan. However, I also think it's a naive plan.

> visible effects of global warming won't manifest themselves until a century later: enough time for them and their kids

This is true for you as well. So why would they care less than you do?

My opinion is irrelevant here. I'm not giving orders to suspend or resume the economy.

Because wealthier people can always move. They can move away from flooded areas, away from hot ones. They can afford air conditioning, they will always be able to afford food and water, and they won't be called upon to serve in the military if there is a resource or land focused conflict.

True but not fully convincing. For example, someone who owns a house on the coast is likely worse off and less flexible than someone who merely rents and apartment. Both can in fact move.

It‘s perhaps not a problem with elites in this case. It‘s simply that the effect is abstract and far away and it‘s hard to predict what will happen _and_ how we will cope.

Cooking the earth due to global warming might cause civilization to collapse, but not for 50 years; causing massive economic hardship by shutting down the fossil fuel infrastructure will end with the ruling class getting the guillotine tomorrow. For them, it’s no choice at all.

Not betting on these 50 years. People have already started migrating because of climate change. In the next 20 years, we'll have half a billion people on the run. This will be the next major "disruption"!

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